November Bitcoin decline hits a ten-year low; a rebound opportunity awaits this week

Bitcoin’s performance in November set the worst record since 2018. According to the latest AI-driven analysis tools, BTC price is expected to hit a local bottom this week, followed by a slow rebound phase.

November Decline Reaches Historic Extremes

By the end of the monthly close, Bitcoin has fallen 36% from its October high. According to blockchain data platform monitoring, at the $87,500 level, BTC still declined over 20% in November. This level of pessimism has never appeared in charts over the past seven years, echoing the bear market trend after the 2018 bull market peak.

Notably, historical data shows an interesting pattern: whenever November’s price trend is downward, December often continues this trend. Crypto market observer Sumit Kapoor pointed out this recurring phenomenon on social media.

Seasonal Patterns Hint at Year-End Rebound

From a longer-term perspective, since 2013, BTC/USD has averaged over 40% gains in November, while December has been relatively stable with an average increase of only 5%. However, the current situation breaks this norm.

Network economist Timothy Peterson used AI predictive models to analyze, indicating that Bitcoin’s latest local bottom has either already formed or will appear this week. The model estimates that, starting from the current price (around $84,500), there is an 85% chance that Bitcoin’s closing price will rise before the end of the year, with at least a 15% chance of further decline.

Recovery Path and Risk Warnings

Peterson’s analysis suggests that if the bottom has been established, Bitcoin will enter a slow recovery phase before the year’s end. However, he emphasizes that the model does not account for external factors such as macroeconomic fluctuations.

Interestingly, overlaying this year’s BTC trend with data from the same period in 2015 also hints at a significant rebound before the end of the year. Bitcoin in 2015 was in a similar position during this period, followed by a sharp 45% rebound, ultimately ending the year up 33%. Although Peterson calls this optimistic outlook “hopium,” the historical similarities do give the market some imagination.

Currently, BTC is fluctuating around the $90,000 mark, not far from the predicted bottom range this week. Investors should pay attention to the price movements this week, as they could be a key reference for judging the strength of subsequent rebounds.