## Coin Unlocks: When Price Loses Stability

When investors talk about token unlocks, they mean the moment when frozen assets from funding rounds or rewards start entering the market. This event can impact the price quickly and sharply or slowly and imperceptibly — it all depends on the type of unlock. Coin unlocks are one of the most underestimated variables in altcoin trading, as investors often focus on fundamental indicators, forgetting about supply mechanics.

## Cliff Unlocks: Catalyst for Price Jumps

The most dramatic type of unlock is cliff unlocks, when a large amount of coins become available simultaneously. Market history shows that such events often lead to a decline in value, but not always.

In August of this year, major unlocks are scheduled:

- **Wormhole (W)** — on August 3, will release 600 million tokens (33.33% of supply) at a price of about $0.04
- **Mode (MODE)** — on August 5, will unlock 185.3 million coins (14.25% of supply)
- **The Sandbox (SAND)** — on August 14, will release 205.6 million tokens (9.07% of supply) at the current price of $0.11

The paradox is that the price of SAND increased after the February unlock rather than fell. This indicates that the market is capable of anticipating such events. However, with tokens like AVAX and ARB, the situation was different — after unlocks, a significant correction followed. The overall conclusion: the direction of price movement is determined not so much by the unlocks themselves but by the overall market trends at the time they occur.

## Linear Unlocks: Subtle Pressure on the Price

The opposite of cliff unlocks is the slow release of coins over an extended period. A classic example: Bitcoin (BTC) mining rewards, which gradually increase the circulating supply. However, their impact on BTC’s price is minimal due to its huge market capitalization and relatively small daily dilution percentage.

Problems arise with smaller projects. Solana (SOL) handles better at a price of $139.79 thanks to its large capitalization, but Worldcoin (WLD), with a current value of $0.57, is in a more vulnerable position. WLD suffers from significant daily dilution, making long-term price growth difficult: if all WLD tokens were circulating at the current rate, the market cap would exceed $11 billion, indicating strong pressure from unvested tokens.

## What Really Matters to Track

The percentage of unlocks relative to the current supply is the main indicator. A small percentage can mean huge dilution if the circulating supply is limited. Investors often make the mistake of comparing absolute numbers instead of relative metrics.

The simple recommendation: before investing in a young project, check the unlock schedule for the next 12-24 months. If massive releases are expected ahead, be cautious with your position size. Coin unlocks are often used as a pretext for selling, so professional market participants prepare for them in advance, accumulating positions before the event or reducing them ahead of large releases.

Conclusions about unlocks should be integrated into a broader investment strategy alongside fundamental analysis, market technicals, and macroeconomic factors.