2026-01-12 10:26:38

The Federal Reserve policy suddenly shifts, and the crypto world might need to reconsider its plans.

On January 12th, Goldman Sachs released its latest forecast, pushing back the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve from the originally scheduled March to June. They expect only two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and September, with the year-end interest rate target set at 3.0%-3.25%. Even more surprisingly, the recession probability outlook was sharply lowered from 30% to 20%. What is the logic behind this?

The key trigger point is the December non-farm payroll data. The new jobs added were only 50,000, far below expectations, and the data for the previous two months was also significantly revised downward. The full-year employment growth in 2025 is at its lowest since the pandemic. Sounds terrible, right? But this is not the full picture — the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.4%, exceeding expectations, GDP growth remains strong, and the impact of tariffs is also waning. This gave the Federal Reserve confidence, allowing it to slow down the pace of rate cuts. Goldman Sachs’ chief economist directly said: “Once inflation truly returns to the 2% target and the labor market stabilizes completely, then we will act.”

Traders responded quickly, pushing the probability of a rate cut in January close to zero. The entire 2025 rate cut expectation is locked in at 50 basis points, and the probability of a March rate cut has also been significantly reduced.

What does this mean for the crypto market? Don’t expect liquidity easing in the first half of the year. The high-interest-rate environment might last longer, and market volatility is hard to avoid. The real liquidity turning point that could change the situation is most likely to occur when the rate cut policy actually materializes around mid-year. So the question is — if rate cuts only start in June, will the crypto market be suppressed first and then rebound, or will it continue to fluctuate at the bottom range? This might be the rhythm worth paying attention to in the coming months.

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GasFeeSurvivor

· 01-12 10:56

Interest rate cuts only in June? Then we really have to hold on for the next half year. In a high interest rate environment, it's really hard to see any waves.

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LightningClicker

· 01-12 10:55

Interest rate cut only in June? Then the crypto prices must have been camping in hell for the past half year.

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RugpullAlertOfficer

· 01-12 10:54

Interest rate cuts only in June? So we've been hanging throughout the first half of the year, it's really uncomfortable. Wait, the logic that the unemployment rate actually decreased is a bit absurd... The Federal Reserve has stabilized, right? I thought there would be a market rally at the beginning of the year, but it turns out I have to wait again, it's exhausting. The liquidity turning point has to wait until mid-year? Then friends holding coins now need to prepare mentally. With high interest rates still in place, how can the coin prices possibly surge? This half-year has probably been a repeated attempt to test the bottom. Despite such poor non-farm payroll data, the unemployment rate has risen, it feels like the data is conflicting. What do you guys think? Does it really have to be June to turn things around? Waiting for rate cuts is less effective than waiting for the public chain ecosystem to explode; anyway, it's all about waiting. It feels like the current market rhythm in the crypto world is being tightly controlled by the Federal Reserve, it's really uncomfortable.

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