Bitcoin in 2025 fell under liquidity pressure, but VanEck sees recovery potential in 2026

Preconditions for a Reversal: How Asset Deficit Can Change the Game

An investment firm VanEck has published a forecast for the future of Bitcoin, asserting that the consistent lag of the digital asset behind gold and the Nasdaq 100 index this year does not reflect a failure of the overall concept, but rather a matter of timing and market conditions. According to analysts, currency devaluation and the return of liquidity to markets could create ideal conditions for Bitcoin to take the lead in the upcoming period.

David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, noted that the widening valuation gap between Bitcoin and Nasdaq is a natural phenomenon that could serve as a signal for a possible reversal. In his view, Bitcoin has lagged behind the stock index by about 50% over the year, but this gap creates potential for a return to equilibrium.

Why Bitcoin Disappointed in 2025: Liquidity as the Main Factor

Throughout 2025, Bitcoin faced a complex set of negative factors. Limited liquidity in markets and a weakened risk appetite became the main drivers keeping digital currency prices low. Against this backdrop, institutional investors began reducing their exposure, which intensified price declines.

Bitcoin peaked at over $126,000 at the beginning of the year, but this was only a short-term high. The subsequent reversal was sharp — quotes fell, dragging the entire crypto market down. Technical supports did not hold, and bearish chart formations intensified the unfavorable dynamics. The current BTC price hovers around $90.77K, reflecting the overall state of uncertainty and recessionary sentiment.

Macroeconomic Cycles and a Turn Toward Deficit Assets

Contrary to the pessimism about the current year, VanEck bases its scenario on the analysis of macroeconomic and liquidity cycles. The company points to historical patterns: Bitcoin typically shows significant growth after a sharp drop in hash rate, with positive momentum over the next 90 days in 65% of cases.

Schassler emphasizes that when currency devaluation intensifies and liquidity recovers, Bitcoin historically reacts with a sharp jump upward. This pattern is considered by the company as the basis for its current active buying strategy. “We are buying,” he said, signaling confidence in a near-term reversal.

Gold as a Benchmark and a Signal of Changing Sentiments

Meanwhile, VanEck expects steady growth in gold, which has remained one of the strongest assets throughout the year with an increase of more than 70%. The company’s forecast predicts the gold price moving toward $5,000 per ounce after current quotes around $4,492 per ounce. This resilience of the precious metal is mainly explained by investors seeking deficit assets during periods of uncertainty and expecting monetary expansion.

Bitcoin is viewed by the company in a similar context — as a hedge against currency devaluation and financial stress. Both assets, according to VanEck, benefit in scenarios where governments intensify expansionary monetary policies to finance their obligations.

Broader Perspectives and Capital Reallocation

Beyond digital assets, VanEck analysts point to a cyclical but sustained bullish trend in natural resource markets. This trend is fueled by demand from artificial intelligence, energy transitions, robotics, and global reindustrialization. Such “old world” assets are seen as the foundation of a new global economy, where demand for infrastructure and materials will grow.

The VanEck fixed income team maintains a cautious stance on bond yields in 2026, expecting more frequent episodic fluctuations rather than stable trends. The U.S. Federal Reserve, as noted in the forecast, faces a political dilemma: labor market weakness competes with steady economic growth and extremely resilient inflation.

Conclusion: Lag as a Catalyst

VanEck’s outlook is built around one fundamental hypothesis: in 2025, Bitcoin investors were disappointed not because of a failure of the concept, but due to the synchronization of market cycles. Liquidity shortages and reduced risk appetite are temporary phenomena. When macroeconomic forces change course and liquidity returns, Bitcoin has the potential to become one of the most successful assets in 2026. The widening valuation gap today, according to analysts, is a preparation for a possible reversal tomorrow.