## Bitcoin in Pre-Holiday Turbulence: Options Expiry Events and Macro Risks on the Horizon

The crypto market is entering a critical period, with several powerful pressure factors acting simultaneously. As Bitcoin remains near $91,580 (as of January 12, 2026), with a 0.87% daily gain, investors are cautiously listening for news about massive options expiry and macroeconomic shifts in global markets.

The main event of the week is the impact of the so-called "Triple Witching" on the US stock market, when derivatives on indices, individual stocks, and options all expire simultaneously. While many analysts view this event as an indirect channel of influence, the risk transmission mechanism through stock movements to crypto assets should be taken seriously.

### Through stocks to crypto: how volatility spreads

Derek Lim, head of research at crypto maker Caladan, explains the key mechanism: "The most direct impact comes from adjusting positions in the stock market, which alters institutional risk appetite. When big concerns on Wall Street intensify, capital flows out of high-beta assets, including Bitcoin."

Historical examples show mixed results. March's witching caused a sharp drop in the crypto market, June's led to a 2% decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices with subsequent monthly calm. At the same time, September's event proved less destructive, demonstrating that the context of risk realization can sometimes be more important than the calendar fact itself.

### Main test: $13.3 billion Bitcoin options on Deribit

However, for crypto specialists, the real holiday will be December 26, when Bitcoin options worth over $13.3 billion on the Deribit exchange expire. This is not just a quarterly formality — more than half of the current open interest is concentrated around this date.

The "maximum pain" strike is in the range of $100,000 to $102,000. This level is where most options lose value, and it is here that investors usually see the greatest potential for market manipulation.

Tim San, senior researcher at HashKey Group, adds perspective: "This volume of options creates motivation for certain price formation. If the price stabilizes below $100,000, then a large portion of long positions will end up unprofitable."

### Macroeconomic background: deflationary trends and capital outflows

The overall picture is much more complex due to global macroeconomic shifts. The main concern is the potential tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. If this happens, it could trigger carry trades, where investors close low-interest yen positions and withdraw capital from risky assets.

"When Japanese rates rise, it creates a grid for decreased demand for crypto. Capital attracted into Bitcoin through leveraged positions will shrink," explains San.

Meanwhile, institutional portfolios have begun their annual rebalancing. During this process, large players often lock in profits and reduce exposure to risky assets — exactly what could pressure Bitcoin's price.

### Protective trader positions and liquidity shortages

The put-call ratio of around 1.10 indicates that traders are taking a clearly defensive stance. Additionally, reduced liquidity during holiday days creates ideal conditions for sudden reversals in price.

Inconsistent ETF flows add uncertainty. If institutions start unwinding positions, insufficient liquidity will mean wider spreads and a greater direct impact on Bitcoin's price.

### Skepticism about the pace of capital expenditure in AI

Another factor is the overestimation of capital expenditure growth in artificial intelligence among US tech companies. If this segment begins to contract, it will have a cascading effect, increasing outflows from high-beta assets, including Bitcoin.

### Market forecasts remain optimistic

Despite these threats, data from prediction markets show residual optimism. On the Myriad platform, users estimate the probability of Bitcoin rising to $100,000 at 68%, compared to the alternative of falling to $69,000. This indicates that long-term market participants still believe in Bitcoin's profitability even amid short-term turbulence.

### Conclusion: prepare for volatility

In summary, volatile trading with significant volatility windows is expected, especially during the late US trading session. The expiry of $13.3 billion in Bitcoin options on December 26 remains a critical date to watch, although the current price of $91,580 remains well below maximum levels.

Traders should prepare for possible sudden moves, but Bitcoin's long-term architecture — its limited supply and growing institutional demand — remains steadfast. The question is how much patience investors will have during these cyclical days before and after the New Year holidays.