Macroeconomics supports BTC: US M2 hits a record, and derivative pressure recedes

The money supply M2 in the USA continues to demonstrate steady growth, reaching a historic high of $22.3 trillion in November. This marks the 21st consecutive month of increase, surpassing the previous peak of 2022 by nearly $400 billion. The annual growth rate of the money supply stands at 4.3%, and the real value of M2 adjusted for inflation fluctuations has increased by 1.5% year-over-year for 15 consecutive months.

On the technical analysis side, the situation in the bitcoin market is also improving. Glassnode co-founder Negentropic noted that recent days have been characterized by positive price action dynamics: during market corrections, buyers consistently activate, and recent price lows demonstrate resistance to paralysis.

Easing from derivatives expirations

The largest bitcoin options expiration session in history, with a nominal value of about $23.6 billion, has already concluded. This means that the derivative instrument pressure mechanism, which had been influencing price dynamics through active hedging over the past weeks, has now receded. Previously, attempts at growth were mostly due to mechanical factors, but now the natural price action mechanism has resumed its work.

Derivative calculator signals a change in sentiment

Analysts point out that using the derivative calculator to assess market positions indicates a shift in the balance of power. The market trend now favors a bullish movement of bitcoin, as the main resistance from derivative positions is located above current prices.

The combination of macroeconomic expansion of the money supply in the USA with the improvement in technical conditions in the bitcoin market creates an environment that many participants interpret as favorable for an upward movement. The ongoing devaluation of fiat currencies amid M2 growth continues to serve as a long-term catalyst for demand for alternative assets, including digital currencies.