Weekend market movements were uneventful, which is actually quite normal. Instead of obsessing over the recent ups and downs, it's better to clarify the overall macro rhythm.

The current market logic framework is very clear. The core action in January is essentially a test of the weekly EMA15, a key moving average, through a round of peak exploration, aiming to gradually flatten this line. Following closely, the daily chart will enter a clearly narrow oscillation zone — this entire process is laying the groundwork for a trend rise in February. Sounds good, but there is a huge trap hidden here.

From the weekly chart pattern, the current trend can easily create illusions in the market — people might think the bear market will continue. The main players will exploit this mentality. They first create a false breakout illusion, misleading retail investors into thinking an opportunity has arrived, prompting them to chase the rally. Once retail investors swarm in, the main players will quickly sell off in large quantities, causing the price to plummet. This is the so-called "trap for trapping the latecomers" — using false bullish signals to harvest followers.

Mainstream coins like BTC and Solana often lead the market by one step; their rhythm changes often indicate the next move of the entire market. To avoid this trap, the key is to understand the timing window. The truly dangerous crash points are not now, but in Q2. This period is the buildup phase, the golden period for the main players to deploy.

How to survive this stage? First, recognize a fact: the core of market volatility is not the direction itself, but the rhythm. Many traders are just guessing blindly, driven entirely by emotions. They buy when prices rise and sell when prices fall, ultimately being repeatedly harvested by the main players. To survive long and make money, you must have a clear technical judgment — know when it’s a real breakout and when it’s a trap for trapping latecomers.

Regarding the current narrow consolidation phase, it should be viewed this way: it’s not that there are no opportunities, but that the opportunity has not yet arrived. Once the trend signal in February is confirmed, that will be the real window to participate. Before that, the smartest approach is to observe and wait, rather than rushing to bottom fish or chase the rally.

At the same time, leave enough margin for potential risks in Q2. Set your stop-loss levels in advance, and don’t wait until a crash really happens to panic. Those who make money in the market are always a minority, and the reason they can profit is because they understand that risk avoidance is more important than chasing gains.