#比特币期权交割 Tomorrow's $23.6 billion options settlement is a noteworthy time point. After market makers unwind their hedge positions, the existing support and resistance levels will temporarily lose their effectiveness, and short-term volatility may indeed increase.

From the on-chain capital gradient perspective, there is a detail worth noting—currently, a bullish divergence signal has appeared between "price and capital inflow gradient." Simply put, the rate of capital outflow is changing less than the price decline of BTC, which usually indicates that the market's correction demand for the downtrend is increasing. Historically, four similar signals have been followed by rebounds of varying degrees, so there is a probability.

If during this settlement period BTC can retest the $80,000–$82,000 range, data suggests there is indeed a short-term chance for a rebound. However, it is important to note that the overall market sentiment is still in a correction phase leaning bearish, which means the sustainability of any rebound may be limited, so excessive optimism is unwarranted.

The key is to distinguish between two concepts: volatility caused by a vacuum in capital structure and a new trend-downward movement. The former is more likely to occur. Close monitoring of large fund movements before and after the settlement and on-chain contract data will be more valuable than trying to predict the direction.