The crypto market has recently been unusually dull. On the surface, prices are consolidating sideways with no sound, but in reality, bullish and bearish funds are engaged in fierce underwater battles. The two major news releases from the US just tonight have turned the market into a life-and-death test—whether to add positions or to run, you need to thoroughly understand these data before making a move.

Speaking of US employment data, this reversal is indeed somewhat surreal. The latest figures show only 50,000 new jobs, far below the market expectation of 66,000, which at first glance raises a high alert for recession. Many retail investors see this number and start to panic, pondering whether to liquidate their positions and exit.

But the details are key. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has actually fallen to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. Plus, the November employment data was significantly revised downward. This combination makes things interesting—economic growth is slowing, but the labor market remains quite tight. For the Federal Reserve, this just provides the best excuse to "maintain high interest rates."

To cut to the chase: a rate cut in January is basically unlikely. The market now only assigns an 11% probability to a rate cut, and the "pause in rate hikes and sustained high rates" strategy from the Fed is already set. In this high-interest environment, funds naturally flow heavily into low-risk assets like US Treasuries. Cryptocurrencies, as risk assets, are left on the sidelines—this also explains why major coins have been oscillating and consolidating recently, lacking confidence.

The market trend over the next two weeks largely depends on whether the Fed will release any new signals. If the high-interest rate policy continues, investors waiting for a turning point may have to keep waiting.