Bitcoin Coming Soon: Recovery or Reversal? Personal Perspective: Just a Bounce

If a conclusion must be drawn beforehand, I lean towards the scenario: Bitcoin is only undergoing a technical rebound, not a trend reversal yet. Looking at recent price movements, the market has revealed quite a few important signals.

1. Too Long of a Recovery Time – Strong Resistance Above From the most recent bottom to surpass the peak around 94,570 USD on 12/10, Bitcoin took nearly a month. In technical analysis, a true strong rally usually breaks old highs very quickly. The longer the time, the more it indicates that the selling pressure above is heavy, and the buying side faces many difficulties. Compared to the April 2025 rally: it only took about 5 days to break the old high. This time, it took nearly 30 days, and the difference is very clear. This suggests that the current market lacks enough momentum to form a sustainable upward trend.
2. Breaking the High but Not Decisively Right after surpassing the 94,500 USD zone, the price only reached around 94,700 USD and then quickly reversed downward. Bitcoin even fell back below the important psychological level of 90,000 USD. If it were a true trend reversal, the price would hardly move so weakly. During the April rally, despite short-term corrections, the price never fell back below 90,000 USD. The market structure is completely different.
3. Likely Scenario Based on the above factors, the high probability is that Bitcoin will: Consolidate sideways for a while or Rally back to around 98,000 USD and then continue to face correction pressure. Overall, the current structure is not strong enough to be called a true trend reversal.
4. Why Is Bitcoin Falling? It’s Actually Very Normal Many try to find macro reasons, news, policies… but in reality, financial markets always operate according to a simple rule: If it rises too strongly, it must correct. Bitcoin has increased several times over the past few years. A correction of a few tens of percent is completely normal – not only for crypto but for all asset classes: US stocks, Vietnamese stocks, gold, silver, or any other markets. No asset keeps rising forever. Conclusion At present, Bitcoin is most likely just undergoing a technical rebound after the previous decline. To confirm a long-term upward trend, the market needs: A decisive break of the highClear support levels maintainedAnd strong buying momentum Until these conditions are met, caution remains the most reasonable choice.