Many people feel distressed when they hear this statement because it points to a more painful truth: what you are eagerly waiting for is not the "late counterfeit season," but rather the market transition mechanism that has been uprooted from its roots and is difficult to restore.

In the past two years, almost everyone has asked the same question repeatedly: with macro consensus, unprecedented regulatory friendliness, the start of spot ETF trading, rising stablecoin volumes, RWA, and on-chain activity — where is the counterfeit season? The answer is: it hasn't come yet. Not because it’s coming slowly, and not because it’s waiting for a big step, but simply because it can no longer launch.

This can no longer be explained solely by low sentiment; it is a fundamental structural problem.
The illogical phenomenon in the first layer: although the crypto market has the most credible window into macroeconomics, it has produced "unfriendly" results for counterfeit.

Looking back at 2020-2021, as long as any of the following conditions were met:

Massive global liquidity injection
Clear increase in risk appetite
Sudden explosion of a specific narrative
Money leaks along the risk ladder: Bitcoin → Ethereum → large market cap → small and medium enterprises → counterfeit → pure gambling market
This is an internal memory path for veteran players. But this cycle has completely failed now. What we see in 2024-2025 is: global liquidity expanding again, real interest rates continuously declining, risk assets reaching new highs, regulation shifting from resistance to framework building… Traditional financial celebrations, impressive on-chain data, except for the counterfeit sector which seems like a spiritual wipeout, are not moving. This is not due to a lack of money, but because money can no longer reach the counterfeit link. The transition chain is broken.

The turning point that changed everything was not the rate hike cycle, nor regulatory tightening, but the systemic collapse in 2022. Many considered Luna just an unexpected black swan, but in fact, it was the final hammer — the tear in the already ripped foundation. That fall was not only for a number of projects but for three fundamental infrastructures:

💦1@ The nearly collapsed extreme liquidity provider
What really drove the counterfeit was that small group of institutions that dared:
Offshore marketers, unsecured credit, self-operating trading platforms, high-frequency transfer of assets between exchanges… they were ready to provide depth, leverage, and credit for thousands of low-liquidity tokens. After the Luna→3AC→Alameda→Genesis→Celsius credit chain broke, no one has yet appeared to replace it with a similar volume.

💦2@ The guidance layer of liquidity was uprooted from the root; money is not that it doesn’t enter the crypto market, but when it does, it cannot move.
There used to be "intermediate stations" that flexibly coordinated between tokens and exchanges. After the disappearance of FTX/Alameda, the guidance network was completely disrupted. Money now piles up at BTC and ETH entrances and cannot exit.

💦3@ Leverage magnifiers are permanently closed
Why could a small amount of money previously move a market hundreds of times larger? Because counterfeit tokens could back each other, contain unlimited leverage, and circulate credit.
After Luna, regulators, banks, custodians, drew red lines:
Only allow trading the most profitable and compliant assets.
This is not a reduction in leverage, but a complete ban on adding leverage.

The current result: not a slow market, not a ready market, but long-term and structurally dry liquidity.
The state of the counterfeit market: sharp decline in depth, deterioration of spreads, order book vacuum, and little hedging activity between exchanges.
Meanwhile: institutions dare only to allocate to BTC/ETH, ETF funds and traditional finance focus on blue-chip stocks, and retail investors have significantly retreated.
At the same time, venture capital projects that heavily focused on 2021-2022 are widely decrypting.
Supply continues, but absorption capacity approaches zero.

The truth has become very clear: what is called the "counterfeit season" is not delay, but a complete dismantling of the old game system.

What does the old model rely on?
Gambling on liquidity leaks, betting on narrative volatility, leveraging and mean reversion, and betting on who takes over.
This model: unsustainable, incompatible, and institutions completely reject it.

So where are the new opportunities? Paths and methods have completely changed.
What can survive in the future is not "the next hundred times narrative," but assets that can endure in a low-liquidity environment long-term, and when compliance doors open, can absorb institutional investments.

Therefore, the critical point may not be the rate cut itself, but the clarity of regulation (regulatory clarity) that will come. Why is the legal framework so important? Because it’s not that funds don’t want to enter, but that rules completely hinder their entry.
Without clear asset definitions, compliant custody paths, and legal safeguards, none of this money will move.
And now, some leading institutions are starting to change their strategies:

The research framework has shifted from "narrative speed" to "cash flow, genuine demand, volume impact, and feasible compliance."
Money will come in, but slower, more selective, and more rational.
The new world has only one harsh filtering criterion: Is it strong enough?
You must answer these questions directly:
✨1. Is there a real use case that can sustain itself without support and survive long-term?
✨2. Can institutions legally own it under current laws?
✨3. Is the token model predictable, auditable, and constrained?
✨4. Is the project actually used, or just waiting for the story?

Previously, these were considered additional points; now they are a lifeline.

Finally, the easiest thing people overlook is that the real applications that start creating value on-chain often are no longer "coded" at all.
They quietly operate in:
Sharing health data,
Digital advertising settlement,
Consumer AI background…
They do not issue tokens, promote, or pump the market, and many in crypto don’t even notice them.
But precisely, this modest, integrated, non-speculative presence is closest to understanding and trusting institutions. From "storytelling" to "real work," this shift in the model has been completed.

If you still hesitate in your heart: "Wait for Bitcoin correction to complete, and funds will flow automatically" — perhaps you are not waiting for a new opportunity, but for an era that has already been dismantled.

Maybe we missed the "giant" crypto cycle people imagine, but in fact, we have achieved something more difficult and valuable:
Getting blockchain out of the narrative of gambling and truly into the real world.
Now, it begins with enforcers.
And enforcement has never been for everyone.