#美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 The latest US non-farm payroll data has caused a strong market reaction. Although the unemployment rate has slightly improved, the overall performance fell short of expectations, directly shattering the market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January—probability of a rate cut is now almost zero. Originally, everyone was hoping that a rate cut would loosen liquidity and inject vitality into risk assets like BTC. However, with expectations unmet, the dollar has strengthened instead, putting short-term pressure on Bitcoin. Coupled with a noticeable slowdown in institutional fund inflows, continuous net inflows into exchanges during this period indicate that market sentiment has shifted to a cautious wait-and-see mode.

Looking at BTC's trend, it has repeatedly oscillated around 90,500, with three failed attempts to break through 95,000, and it has dipped as low as 89,300 seeking support. According to the liquidation map, both the upper and lower sides are stacked with hundreds of millions of dollars in leveraged positions, which is a typical long-short tug-of-war scenario. The greed and fear index has returned to the neutral zone, indicating that the market's enthusiasm for chasing highs is waning, and the overall volatility has slowed down. In the short term, it is most likely to remain in a range-bound oscillation.

On-chain data is quite interesting—investor confidence is slowly recovering toward the zero line. Although the logic of the rebound has not been broken, this process can be quite torturous, a typical "two steps forward, one step back" rhythm. It will take some time before confidence fully returns to the zone. On a monthly chart, the Bollinger Bands are showing divergence, which suggests the market is at a critical point in the bull-bear battle. Future focus should be on the support strength of the middle band. Some believe that BTC already has the potential to compete with top US stocks, and 2026 could be a watershed year for its long-term trend.

Honestly, it’s like trying to saw through a piece of wood—pulling it all at once is a bit unrealistic. Although many still believe in the overall direction and think it can operate steadily like leading US stocks, the recent good news has not materialized, and the dollar is acting up again, so everyone naturally dares not to make reckless moves. The trading advice is not to fight this wave of market movement. If you have positions aligned with the trend, take profits accordingly. If key support levels are broken, you must withdraw decisively. The same old advice: be patient, wait for this wind to pass, keep a balanced mindset, observe more, and operate less.