The US trade deficit data is a key indicator for understanding the global circulation of the dollar and directly influences the rhythm of gains and losses in the crypto market.

This impact is not immediate but unfolds in stages. First is the emotional level—when the deficit data far exceeds market expectations (for example, the recent release of a 300 billion scale), it immediately triggers concerns about economic imbalance in the US, leading to a short-term sharp pullback in risk assets like Bitcoin. This is easy to understand—it's an instant reaction driven by panic.

But the real key lies in the intermediate link. Suppose the US government attempts to "reverse the deficit" by imposing tariffs and other measures; the side effect of this would be a reduction in dollar outflows overseas. What happens then? A "dollar tension" scenario may emerge, with risk assets facing selling pressure first, and crypto capital quickly retreating in the short term.

The most interesting logic is hidden at the end. If the deficit continues to shrink, it could weaken overseas institutions' willingness to continue buying US Treasuries, forcing the Federal Reserve to consider "printing money to stabilize the situation"—that is, expanding the money supply. Once the Fed opens the floodgates, surging liquidity will seek safe-haven assets, and assets like Bitcoin that hedge against dollar devaluation will become highly sought after. This is the true trigger for initiating a long-term bull market.

Therefore, don't just focus on the fluctuations of the deficit data itself. The key is to see how it influences the "dollar tide"—closely monitor the real trend of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the signals from the Federal Reserve's policies. These two are the core variables that ultimately determine the direction of the crypto market.

In one sentence: short-term is a game of emotions; long-term is liquidity playing tricks.