The latest US non-farm payroll data came in below expectations. Although the unemployment rate decreased, this directly led to the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January dropping to zero. The market initially expected rate cuts to inject liquidity into risk assets like Bitcoin, but with these expectations unmet, the dollar strengthened, and BTC faced short-term pressure. Currently, institutional capital inflows have slowed, and exchanges have recently shown net inflows, indicating that short-term market sentiment has shifted to caution.

Bitcoin, oscillating around 90,500, has attempted three times to break through 95,000 without success, and has dipped to 89,300 to find support. According to liquidation maps, both ends of the market are accumulating leverage positions worth hundreds of millions of dollars, indicating a typical tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The Fear & Greed Index has returned to neutral, reflecting weakened market enthusiasm for chasing highs. Overall volatility has slowed, and it is highly likely to maintain range-bound trading in the short term.

On-chain indicators show that investor confidence is slowly recovering toward the zero line. Although the logic for a rebound still holds, the process may be more arduous, showing a “step forward, one step back” pattern. Returning to the confidence zone will take time. The divergence in the monthly Bollinger Bands suggests the market is at a critical point of bull-bear contest, and future focus should be on the support strength after retesting the middle band. Many opinions believe that BTC now has the strength to compete alongside top US stocks, and 2026 could become a key turning point for long-term trends.

The current market is like sawing a big log—trying to jump in all at once is difficult. Although the overall outlook remains optimistic, expecting it to be as stable as major US blue-chip stocks, recent positive signals have not materialized, the dollar is strong again, and traders are hesitant to act. Recently, it’s best not to fight the trend; if you see a good setup, take profits quickly. If key levels are broken, it’s important to exit promptly. Everyone is waiting for this wave to pass, staying calm and watching more, acting less.