According to Morgan Stanley's latest expectations, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in June, followed by another 25 basis points cut in September. This judgment is largely consistent with the CME FedWatch market pricing—data shows that the market assigns about a 95% probability of the first rate cut occurring around mid-year, corresponding to a target range of 3.50%-3.75% for the federal funds rate. This market consensus reflects investors' growing expectations for inflation easing and a policy shift, but further confirmation from economic data and official signals is still needed.