Can Bitcoin reach $2.9 million in 24 years? See VanEck's three predictions

Global asset management firm VanEck has just released a groundbreaking report on the long-term price of Bitcoin, presenting three entirely different future forecasts. Ranging from an optimistic $53.4 million to a pessimistic $130,000, this report is not just a price prediction but an imaginative view of Bitcoin’s future role. Currently trading around $90,000, what insights can this report offer to long-term investors?

VanEck’s Three Forecast Scenarios

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, and senior analyst Patrick Bush jointly published this report. It outlines three clear forecast scenarios, reflecting different possibilities for Bitcoin’s future development:

This price range from $130,000 to $53.4 million spans over 400 times, highlighting the uncertainty inherent in long-term forecasts. But why does VanEck provide such predictions? The key lies in their positioning of Bitcoin’s future role.

The Logic Behind the Predictions

The $2.9 million forecast in the base case is built on a core assumption: Bitcoin will transition from a speculative asset to a vital component of the global financial system. Specifically, this requires several conditions:

• Bitcoin accounting for 5-10% of global trade settlements
• Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset held by central banks, constituting 2.5% of their balance sheets
• Bitcoin recognized widely by institutions as a hedge against currency devaluation
• Maintaining an annual compound growth rate of around 15%

According to related information, this forecast is driven by global liquidity expansion and currency devaluation. VanEck believes Bitcoin’s long-term growth effectively hedges against flaws in the traditional monetary system. Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap has reached $1.81 trillion, accounting for 58.51% of the cryptocurrency market, laying a foundation for further institutional allocation.

Institutional Allocation Recommendations

VanEck provides specific allocation suggestions in the report, which are valuable for investors:

• Most diversified portfolios: allocate 1-3% to Bitcoin
• For investors with higher risk tolerance: up to 20%, as historical data suggests this can optimize returns

The rationale behind this advice is that Bitcoin, as an asset with low correlation, can effectively reduce overall portfolio risk. Currently, market perception of Bitcoin remains largely speculative, leaving significant room for increased institutional participation.

Short-term vs. Long-term Perspectives

It is worth noting that VanEck’s long-term forecasts differ markedly from current short-term market expectations. According to related information, many institutions project Bitcoin’s price by the end of 2026 to be around $150,000, with some optimistic views reaching $200,000–$250,000. This implies a potential increase of about 60–170% from the current $90,000 by 2026, whereas VanEck’s base case from now to 2050 assumes an annual growth rate of only 15%.

This highlights an important phenomenon: short-term market sentiment can be highly volatile, while long-term growth depends more on fundamental changes. VanEck’s model emphasizes Bitcoin’s potential as a reserve asset and settlement currency—a long-term process that requires time to validate.

Summary

VanEck’s three forecast scenarios illustrate multiple possibilities for Bitcoin’s future, but regardless of the scenario, they point toward Bitcoin evolving from a purely speculative asset to a component of financial infrastructure. The $2.9 million base forecast may sound large, but the 15% annual growth rate over the long term is not particularly aggressive in asset allocation terms.

The key takeaway is that Bitcoin’s long-term value depends on whether it can become an essential tool for global trade settlement and central bank reserves, rather than just a price speculation. For institutional investors, allocating 1-3% of their portfolios to Bitcoin allows participation in long-term growth while effectively managing risk. As for where short-term prices will go, that remains a more complex question.