Non-farm payroll data is no longer the "highlight" of the market, and the structural changes in the market by 2026

Looking back at recent market evolution, a clear trend is emerging: the instantaneous impact of non-farm payroll data on the market is weakening, and this characteristic is expected to become even more pronounced by 2026. The reasons are mainly twofold: the market has become accustomed to the bombardment of high-frequency macro data, reducing the marginal informational value of individual data points; at the same time, algorithms and expectation management have made completely unexpected data increasingly rare. Therefore, non-farm payroll data is more about confirming trends rather than creating them.

In this context, if the non-farm payroll data in 2026 slightly exceeds or falls short of expectations, the market usually only experiences brief fluctuations before returning to its original rhythm. Truly trend-changing signals come from consistent data directions over several months or structural changes in key components.

This means that the cost-effectiveness of short-term bets on non-farm payroll data is decreasing, while in medium-term strategies, operating around expectation differences related to non-farm data can be more advantageous. For example, when the market is overly pessimistic, if the non-farm payroll data does not worsen further, it often signals a turning point for risk assets.

Non-farm payroll data is shifting from a "firework" to a "background color," which is precisely a key feature of macro trading in 2026. #非农就业数据