Glassnode New Year Report: $95,000 Call Option Premium, Bulls Shift to Aggressive Attack

Title: Clearing the Decks

Author: Chris Beamish, CryptoVizArt, Antoine Colpaert

Source:

Reprint: Mars Finance

Bitcoin has entered 2026 with a clearer market structure after a large-scale year-end correction. Currently, profit-taking pressure has eased, market risk appetite is gradually recovering, but to establish a sustained upward trend, it remains crucial to hold steady and reclaim important cost basis levels.

Summary

· After experiencing a deep correction and months of consolidation, Bitcoin officially enters 2026. On-chain data shows profit-taking pressure has significantly eased, and the market structure shows initial signs of stabilization at the lower end of the range.

· Although selling pressure has decreased, a large amount of trapped positions remains above the current price, mainly concentrated in the upper half of the range. This will continue to suppress upward movement, highlighting the importance of breaking through key resistance levels to restore an upward trend.

· Demand from digital asset treasury companies for Bitcoin still provides underlying support for prices, but this demand is pulse-like, lacking sustainability and structural consistency.

· After net outflows at the end of 2025, US spot Bitcoin ETF funds have recently shown signs of net inflows. Meanwhile, open interest in futures markets has stopped declining and begun to rise, indicating institutional investors are re-engaging, and derivatives activity is rebuilding.

· Record-breaking options positions expired at year-end, with over 45% of open contracts liquidated, removing structural hedging constraints in the market and allowing true risk appetite to be more clearly reflected in prices.

· Implied volatility has likely bottomed out, with buyer demand at the start of the year gently lifting the volatility curve, but it remains in a low range within the past three months.

· As the premium on put options narrows and the proportion of call options trading increases, market skewness continues to normalize. Since the beginning of the year, options trading has tilted toward bullishness, indicating investors are shifting from defensive hedging to actively positioning for upside opportunities.

· In the $95,000 to $104,000 range, market maker positions have turned net short, meaning that as prices rise into this range, their hedging actions will passively boost the rally. Additionally, the premium on call options around the $95,000 strike suggests long holders prefer to hold rather than quickly take profits.

Overall, the market is gradually shifting from a defensive deleveraging phase to a selective risk-on stance, entering 2026 with a clearer structure and higher resilience.

On-Chain Insights

Profit-Taking Pressure Significantly Eases

In the first week of 2026, Bitcoin broke through a consolidation range of about 87,000 USD that had lasted for several weeks, rising approximately 8.5%, with a high of 94,400 USD. This rally was built on a significant cooling of overall profit-taking pressure. In late December 2025, the 7-day moving average of realized profits sharply declined from high levels above 1 billion USD daily during most of Q4 to 183.8 million USD.

The decline in realized profits, especially the reduced selling pressure from long-term holders, indicates that the main selling pressure previously suppressing price gains has been temporarily released. As selling strength weakens, the market stabilizes and regains confidence, fueling a new upward move. Therefore, the early-year breakout signals that the market has effectively digested profit-taking, opening space for prices to rise.

Facing Resistance from Trapped Positions Above

As profit-taking pressure eases, prices can further advance, but the current rebound is entering a supply zone composed of positions with different cost bases. The market is now dominated by “recent top buyers,” whose cost bases are densely distributed between 92,100 and 117,400 USD. These investors bought heavily near previous highs and held through the decline from the historical peak to around 80,000 USD, until the current rebound phase.

Thus, as prices climb back into their cost bases, these investors will have opportunities to unwind or realize small profits, forming natural resistance to further upward movement. To truly restart a bull market, the market needs time and resilience to absorb this supply above, enabling prices to break through this zone effectively.

Key Recovery Levels

In the face of resistance from trapped positions above, assessing whether the recent rebound can truly reverse the previous downtrend and enter a demand-driven phase requires a reliable price analysis framework. The short-term holder cost basis model is particularly important during this transition.

Notably, the market’s weak balance in December last year occurred near the lower boundary of this model, reflecting fragile market sentiment and lack of buyer confidence at that time. The subsequent rebound pushed prices back toward the model’s mean, around 99,100 USD, which is the short-term holder cost basis.

Therefore, the first key confirmation signal of market recovery will be the price’s ability to sustain above this short-term holder cost basis, indicating renewed confidence among new entrants and a potential shift toward an optimistic trend.

Crossroads of Profit and Loss

As the focus shifts to whether the market can effectively reclaim short-term holder cost bases, the current market structure bears similarities to the failed rebound in Q1 2022. If prices cannot sustain above this level, deeper declines may occur, increasing downside risk. Persistent lack of confidence could further reduce demand.

This dynamic is also clearly reflected in the short-term holder MVRV indicator, which compares spot prices to the average cost of recent buyers to gauge unrealized gains or losses. Historically, when this indicator stays below 1 (price below average cost), the market tends to be dominated by bears. Currently, the indicator has rebounded from a low of 0.79 to 0.95, meaning recent buyers are still holding about 5% unrealized losses. If the market cannot quickly return to profitability (MVRV > 1), downside pressure remains, making this a key indicator to watch in the coming weeks.

Off-Chain Insights

Demand from Digital Asset Treasuries Cools

Corporate treasury demand still provides important marginal support for Bitcoin, but their buying behavior remains intermittent and event-driven. Multiple instances of weekly net inflows of thousands of BTC have occurred, but these do not form sustained, stable accumulation patterns.

Large inflows tend to happen during local price corrections or consolidations, indicating that corporate buying remains opportunistic and price-driven rather than a long-term structural accumulation. Although the participation of institutions has expanded, overall inflows are pulse-like, with extended periods of silence.

Without continuous treasury buying support, corporate demand mainly acts as a “stabilizer” for prices rather than a driver of sustained upward trends. Market direction will increasingly depend on derivatives positions and short-term liquidity conditions.

ETF Funds Return to Net Inflows

Recent data shows early signs of institutional re-entry into the US spot Bitcoin ETF market. After a period of net outflows and low trading activity at the end of 2025, recent weeks have seen clear net inflows, coinciding with prices stabilizing and rebounding around the 80,000 USD level.

Although the current net inflow scale has not yet reached mid-cycle peaks, the trend has shifted positively. The number of days with net inflows has increased, indicating ETF investors are transitioning from net sellers back toward marginal buyers.

This shift suggests that institutional spot demand is once again becoming a positive force in the market, rather than a liquidity drain, providing structural buying support for the market’s stabilization at the start of the year.

Futures Market Activity Rebounds

Following the sharp deleveraging triggered by price declines at the end of 2025, open interest in futures markets has recently begun to recover. After falling from over 50 billion USD at cycle highs, open interest has stabilized and grown modestly, indicating derivatives traders are rebuilding risk positions.

This position rebuilding aligns with the stabilization of prices above 80,000 to 90,000 USD, showing traders are gradually increasing risk exposure rather than rushing to chase higher prices. The pace of re-accumulation remains moderate, and open interest remains well below previous cycle peaks, reducing the risk of large-scale liquidations in the near term.

The gentle rebound in open interest signals improved risk appetite, with derivatives buying gradually returning, helping prices initiate a new phase of valuation as liquidity normalizes at the start of the year.

Options Market “Massive Reshuffle”

At the end of 2025, Bitcoin options markets experienced the largest position reset in history. Open interest dropped from 579,258 contracts on December 25 to 316,472 contracts after expiry on December 26, a decrease of over 45%.

A large concentration of open positions at certain strike prices influences short-term price movements through market maker hedging. By year-end, this concentration reached high levels, causing “price stickiness” and limiting volatility.

Now, this pattern has been broken. With the expiry of these concentrated positions, the market has shed the structural constraints of previous hedging mechanisms.

Post-expiry, the market environment offers a clearer window into true sentiment, as new positions reflect current risk appetite rather than residual positions. This makes early January options trading more directly indicative of market expectations for future trends.

Implied Volatility Likely Bottomed

Following the large reset of options positions, implied volatility touched short-term lows during Christmas. During the holiday period, with low trading volume, weekly implied volatility fell to its lowest since late September last year.

Subsequently, buyer interest has begun to return, with investors gradually building long volatility positions (especially bullish ones) around the New Year, gently lifting the volatility curve across maturities.

Although it has rebounded somewhat, implied volatility remains compressed. Volatilities across one-week to six-month maturities are concentrated between 42.6% and 45.4%, with a relatively flat curve.

Volatility remains at low levels within the past three months, and recent increases more likely reflect renewed market participation rather than a comprehensive re-pricing of risk.

Market Approaching Balance

As implied volatility stabilizes, skewness provides a clearer view of traders’ directional preferences. Over the past month, the premium for out-of-the-money put options relative to calls has continued to narrow, with the 25-Delta skew gradually returning toward zero.

This indicates a market gradually shifting toward bullish positioning. Investors are moving from purely defensive hedging to increasing exposure to upside opportunities, consistent with their rebalancing after year-end position adjustments.

Meanwhile, defensive positions have decreased. Some downside protection positions have been unwound, reducing premiums paid for “black swan” insurance.

Overall, skewness suggests market risk expression is becoming more balanced, with increased expectations for upward price movement or volatility expansion.

New Year Options Trading Shows Bullish Bias

Fund flow data confirms the trend reflected in skewness. Since the start of the year, options activity has shifted from systematic selling of bullish options (betting on volatility decline) to active buying of calls (betting on upside or increased volatility).

In the past seven days, bullish call buying accounted for 30.8% of total options volume. The rising demand for calls has also attracted volatility sellers, who sell calls (accounting for 25.7% of total activity) to earn higher premiums.

Put options account for 43.5% of total volume, which is moderate given recent price increases. This aligns with the normalization of skewness, indicating reduced immediate downside protection demand.

Market Makers Turn Negative in Key Range

With active bullish options trading since the start of the year, market maker positions have also adjusted accordingly. Currently, in the 95,000 to 104,000 USD range, market makers hold a net short position.

Within this range, as prices rise, market makers hedge risk by buying spot or perpetual contracts, which passively amplifies the rally—quite different from the environment at the end of last year that suppressed volatility.

The behavior of traders buying call options heavily concentrated around 95,000 to 100,000 USD in the upcoming quarter further confirms a shift in risk expression. The current market maker position structure means their hedging actions in this range are less likely to suppress price movements and may even enhance upward momentum.

Patience in 95,000 USD Call Premiums

The behavior of call options at the 95,000 USD strike provides an effective indicator of market sentiment shifts. When spot prices were still near 87,000 USD on January 1, the premiums for calls at this strike began accelerating, rising along with the price toward the recent high of 94,400 USD.

Subsequently, premium buying slowed but did not significantly decline. Importantly, this process was not accompanied by a large increase in call option selling.

This indicates limited profit-taking among call holders. Since the recent high, call selling has only increased modestly, suggesting most bullish positions are being held rather than quickly realized.

Overall, the behavior of options premiums around the 95,000 USD strike reflects the patience and confidence of bullish participants.

Summary

Bitcoin, entering the new year, has significantly cleaned up its historical positions across spot, futures, and options markets. The deleveraging at the end of 2025 and the expiry of year-end options have effectively removed previous structural constraints, leaving a cleaner, more signal-rich environment.

Early signs of renewed market participation are emerging: ETF fund flows stabilize and rebound, futures activity rebuilds, options markets shift clearly toward bullish positioning—skewness normalizes, volatility bottoms out, and market makers turn net short in key upper ranges.

These dynamics collectively indicate that the market is gradually transitioning from a defensive sell-off mode to a phase of selective risk-taking and increased participation. Although structural buying pressure remains to be strengthened, the release of previous position pressures and the reaccumulation of bullish sentiment suggest Bitcoin is starting 2026 with a lighter footprint, with improved internal structure and more potential for subsequent rallies.