#数字资产行情上升 【Trader Observation】BTC Short-term Structure Shows Turning Point, Is It a Shakeout or Reversal?

I just noticed something while watching the candlesticks. The 1-hour chart surged to 92680 and then pulled back, finally closing around 91600. The amplitude doesn't seem large (1.17%), but the details are interesting——the MACD green bars have turned red, and the BOLL middle band has been broken. These signs suggest that short-term sentiment is shifting.

How to interpret the technicals? Let me break it down. On the moving averages, the MA30 and EMA55 are forming a death cross near 92500, indicating short-term pressure. But there's a detail worth noting: the price has already touched the lower BOLL band (around 91500). Historically, this position often results in a rebound.

The MACD signal is quite subtle. Although the red bars have appeared, the DIFF value (225.5) is still oscillating at a high level and hasn't weakened completely. If the price can close above 91800 today, I think this could signal a "false death cross" rebound rather than a true trend reversal.

Regarding volume, the data also supports an upward expectation. On-chain monitoring shows that large addresses have increased their holdings by about 32,000 BTC in the past 24 hours. What does this mean? Net outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges are also increasing. Overall, the probability of accumulation is higher than panic selling.

We can't ignore some macro signals either. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes lean dovish, and the US dollar index is retreating, providing marginal support for crypto assets. The spot ETF performance is more direct——continuous net inflows for three days, totaling $870 million, indicating that institutional support is ongoing. Once the price breaks through 93000, a short squeeze in the options market could be triggered, which would be quite interesting.

What do I think personally? This is not the time to chase short positions. The 91500 to 91000 range has accumulated a lot of buy orders, and the 1-hour RSI is in oversold territory, so a rebound could start at any moment. My plan is to enter long positions gradually below 91800, with a stop-loss at 90800, targeting the 93500 to 94500 range.

The market is a game of tug-of-war, and the data is speaking. This is the true picture of BTC right now.