Will the high court rule on Friday that Trump's tariffs are illegal, and can the crypto market avoid a crash?

The U.S. Supreme Court may make a critical ruling on Friday (January 10) regarding the legality of Trump’s tariff policies. According to data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of this event occurring is as high as 78%. This potential policy shift has sparked market concerns, with crypto KOL Wimar.X believing that U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and bonds could all face a comprehensive decline. However, within the community, opinions on the market impact are divided—some see this as an operational opportunity rather than a disaster.

Key Ruling Imminent, Market Expectations Diverge Significantly

Event Highlights

The Supreme Court’s decision on January 10 will determine whether the tariffs implemented by the Trump administration are lawful. If the court rules the tariffs illegal, it will lead to significant policy changes. Based on Polymarket’s probability data, market participants have a fairly clear expectation of this outcome.

Wimar.X’s Pessimistic Outlook

Crypto KOL Wimar.X posted that this could be “the worst day” for the markets this year. His core logic is: if the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, it will trigger massive tariff refunds. According to his analysis, historical cases show that such refunds could reach up to $600 billion, but these refunds typically take years to resolve through individual lawsuits, resulting in long-term cash flow impacts rather than immediate shocks.

Market Expectations Show Clear Divergence

Clash of Opinions

Community members have questioned Wimar.X’s view. They believe that the $600 billion refund scale is exaggerated and that the actual impact may not be as severe. More importantly, they see Friday’s market volatility as an operational opportunity rather than a true market crash signal.

Prominent investor Tom Lee also shared related discussions, commenting that “this could be a contrarian signal,” implying that the market might be overreacting to negative news.

Comparing Different Perspectives

Crypto Markets Should Monitor but Not Overreact

Impact Pathway Analysis

If the Supreme Court indeed rules the tariffs illegal, the market could face the following chain reactions:

• Significant adjustments in U.S. stocks, risk assets under pressure
• Cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, may decline in tandem
• Bond markets could fluctuate due to policy expectation shifts
• The strength of the U.S. dollar might weaken, providing long-term support for crypto markets

Short-term vs. Long-term Perspective Differences

In the short term, the market may indeed experience noticeable volatility. However, based on historical experience, policy uncertainties tend to be gradually absorbed over time rather than causing a sudden collapse. The actual implementation of tariff refunds could take years, meaning the real pressure on the market might be spread over a longer period.

Summary

The Supreme Court’s decision on January 10 is a key risk point for the market this week, with a 78% probability indicating that the market has already priced in a considerable expectation. Nonetheless, internal opinions on the impact vary—ranging from Wimar.X’s “worst day” warning to the community’s view of it as an “operational opportunity.” This divergence itself reflects differing understandings of risk among market participants.

For crypto investors, Friday’s volatility is worth paying attention to, but it’s more important to understand that this is not a simple one-way decline but a policy event that requires ongoing monitoring. Short-term market shocks often conceal long-term strategic opportunities; the key is how to find your own rhythm amid uncertainty.