Bitcoin's performance at the start of the year has been quite fierce, rapidly surging from the bottom to the $94,000 mark within just a few days, followed by a pullback to around $92,000. Such volatility has kept market participants on edge—Is this the true beginning of a bull market, or just a fleeting rebound?

From the market performance perspective, the key variable behind this upward movement is the trend of institutional funds. Every time Bitcoin hits a new high, we see large capital probing at critical levels. The question is whether these institutions are laying the groundwork for long-term accumulation or engaging in short-term hedging trades. This judgment directly impacts the sustainability of subsequent market trends.

It is important to be cautious that the current market may be overestimating the significance of this rise. First, this surge may merely be a short-term game among hedge funds and not indicative of a genuine long-term trend shift. Second, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy stance—whether to raise or cut interest rates remains undecided. If the policy unexpectedly shifts, Bitcoin could face adjustment pressures at any time. Third, the risk of short-term chasing driven by retail FOMO has been severely underestimated. Reflecting on the previous breakdown of $90,000 and the selling pressure then, a similar scenario could repeat now.

From technical and fundamental perspectives, two important signals are worth monitoring. First is the economic data—key indicators like unemployment rate and inflation directly influence the Fed's policy direction. Any surprises could trigger a rapid correction in Bitcoin. Second is the trend of large institutional holdings, such as changes in positions held by major asset managers like Grayscale, which often serve as true bull market signals.

In summary, the smartest approach to the current market is to strictly control risk and avoid blindly going all-in. Short-term market fluctuations are unpredictable, but by paying attention to macroeconomic data and large fund movements, we can at least improve our odds. Wear your helmet before getting on the ride—that's the right attitude for long-term survival.