Ladies and gentlemen, I am a trading analyst.

Are you also watching the market today? Worrying about a pullback after a big rise, wanting to buy the dip after a sharp decline, unable to sleep peacefully holding positions, or unable to enter the market when out of positions. It’s a frustrating feeling.

This kind of feeling is very normal. But I tell you, after 21:15 tonight, the situation will become clear—provided you do your homework now.

**Why is tonight’s data so critical?**

The US December ADP employment data is about to be released, called the "small non-farm" by the market. Don’t underestimate it; this data directly indicates the trend of Friday’s non-farm payrolls and is also a barometer of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

Currently, market expectations for a rate cut in January are heating up, with the current pricing around 17.7%. This percentage doesn’t sound high, but what does it represent? It indicates that the market is expecting a turning point.

**What happens if the data falls short of expectations?** Expectations of rate cuts will be fueled further, the US dollar will come under pressure, and Bitcoin may see a strong rebound—this is a red flag period for risk assets.

**What if the data exceeds expectations?** Expectations of rate cuts will be cooled down, risk assets will come under pressure across the board, and BTC may need to retest support levels.

This is not just a small technical fluctuation; it’s a dividing line for the trend. Data sets the direction, and the direction determines the rise or fall. Be prepared.