Kalshi trading volume surpasses $27 billion: Why the prediction market sector has become the biggest dark horse of 2026

Since its launch in 2021, Kalshi has grown to become the second-largest prediction market globally. According to the latest data, its total historical trading volume has surpassed $27 billion, with an average daily trading volume of over $16.6 million, and more than 2.7 billion total trades. Even more noteworthy is that by 2025, Kalshi’s trading volume is projected to reach $24.2 billion, representing a staggering 1100% year-over-year growth — a speed of growth that can be described as “explosive” in any industry.

From Regulatory Pushback to Market Leader

The astonishing growth in trading scale

Kalshi’s growth trajectory has not been smooth. Founded in 2018, it has faced strict scrutiny from the U.S. regulatory agency CFTC from the very beginning — prediction markets were once directly classified as “illegal gambling,” causing many competitors to retreat. But Kalshi’s founder, Luanna Lopez Lala, persisted in this unfriendly environment for six years.

What has this persistence yielded? Just look at these figures:

This is no small feat. A projected $24.2 billion trading volume in 2025 means Kalshi has become the most active prediction market within the crypto ecosystem. And this is just the surface data — more critically, this growth is happening during a period of explosive expansion in the prediction market sector.

Establishing Market Position

Kalshi is now the second-largest prediction market globally, second only to Polymarket. But behind this ranking lies an even more important detail: Kalshi is the official provider of prediction market functionality for Coinbase and Robinhood. In other words, these mainstream exchanges are utilizing Kalshi’s infrastructure for their prediction markets.

What does this imply? It means Kalshi is no longer just a trading platform but has become a foundational infrastructure for the entire crypto ecosystem. Users on Coinbase and Robinhood can trade prediction markets directly on their platforms, with underlying data and matching logic powered by Kalshi.

Evolution of Business Model

Recently, Kalshi launched a VIP program, which is quite interesting. According to reports, the VIP plan includes dedicated account managers, limited-edition merchandise, offline events and dinners, and referral rewards. This approach is directly inspired by major exchanges like Binance and OKX, indicating that Kalshi is positioning itself from a “niche prediction platform” to a “mainstream trading ecosystem.”

Why Are Prediction Markets Booming

This rapid growth is not accidental. Several core drivers are fueling the prediction market boom in 2025:

• Political Events: Major events like U.S. elections and international geopolitical shifts have made prediction markets a tool for “hedging uncertainty.”
• Regulatory Recognition: U.S. regulators have shifted from “pushing out” to “regulating,” providing more room for compliant platforms to operate.
• Mainstream Exchange Adoption: Integration of prediction market features into platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood allows ordinary users to participate.
• Capital Attention: Institutional investors are beginning to see prediction markets as tools for “information arbitrage.”

Future Outlook

According to industry analysis, the trading volume of prediction markets could surpass $70 billion in 2026. If this forecast proves accurate, Kalshi, as the second-largest platform globally, still has enormous growth potential.

However, risks also exist. Recently, U.S. legislative bodies have begun drafting laws targeting “insider trading” in prediction markets, which could impose higher compliance requirements on platforms. For Kalshi, which already operates within a regulatory framework, this could be a positive development — raising industry entry barriers and weakening the competitiveness of non-compliant platforms.

Summary

Kalshi’s transformation from a “illegal gambling platform” driven out by regulators to a provider of infrastructure within the crypto ecosystem is itself quite intriguing. The $27 billion in trading volume, 1100% annual growth, and $11 billion valuation reflect the explosive development of the prediction market sector.

Most importantly, this explosion has only just begun. With mainstream exchanges deeply involved and regulatory frameworks gradually improving, prediction markets are evolving from a niche activity into a mainstream infrastructure. Kalshi’s success so far is due to the founder’s perseverance and accurate market insight. How it will proceed next remains a topic worth continuous attention.