Based on several years of observation, the New Year's Day market is often a false breakout. The real logic is as follows:

Around the Spring Festival, large investors and institutions begin to hedge risks, leading to obvious selling pressure and a sharp drop in prices. However, this decline is usually just a correction, and after the Spring Festival, a rebound window is more likely—mainly because funds re-enter the market.

From the perspective of Ethereum and whale holdings, this period is particularly sensitive. Before the festival, large investors tend to reduce their holdings to avoid risks, while the rhythm of rebuilding positions after the festival determines the strength of subsequent market movements.

So rather than chasing the false prosperity of New Year's Day, it's better to pay attention to the capital flows and whale holdings changes before and after the Spring Festival—that's the true market logic.