Bitunix Analyst: Milan hints at a potential rate cut of over 100 basis points in 2026, with employment data becoming the key watershed for policy decisions

Bitjie News reports that on January 7, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miylan pointed out that current interest rate policy is “clearly restrictive” and is creating substantial drag on the economy. He explicitly stated that 2026 has sufficient reasons for rate cuts “well exceeding 100 basis points.” This dovish stance contrasts sharply with some officials’ view that policy is approaching neutrality, and highlights that divisions within the Fed over economic outlook and policy stance continue to widen. From a macroeconomic perspective, whether monetary policy is overly tight ultimately depends on actual labor market performance. This week, the U.S. will intensively release ADP, JOLTS, initial jobless claims, and nonfarm payroll reports. Multiple “employment checkups” will be key indicators for assessing whether the economy can sustain high interest rates. If employment maintains resilience, the Fed’s near-term justification for pausing rate cuts will increase; conversely, if data weakens again, the aggressive easing voices represented by Miylan could rapidly amplify. On the crypto market front, this division itself constitutes an important forward signal. Uncertainty in the rate path means liquidity expectations will remain highly sensitive to data changes, potentially amplifying short-term volatility; but if subsequent employment and inflation data jointly point to expanded policy adjustment space, the market will reassess the medium-to-long-term liquidity environment, providing structural support for assets with “monetary characteristics” like Bitcoin. Bitunix Analyst: The current issue is not about any single official’s comments, but rather policy divergence intersecting with critical data. The direction of employment data will determine whether the market moves toward “rate pause” or “trading deeper easing ahead,” while the core observation focus for the crypto market remains whether liquidity expectations undergo a substantial shift.