#数字资产行情上升 2026 The "Century-Long Battle" of the Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts in 2026

The Federal Reserve is in chaos internally. Officials are embroiled in the most intense disagreements in nearly six years over the number of basis points to cut rates—one side demands a cut of over 100 basis points this year, directly calling the current 3.5%-3.75% rate an "economic killer"; the other insists on defending inflation control, willing to cut only 25 basis points each time, with the two factions at loggerheads.

The reason for this dispute is quite pragmatic. The dovish side cites real economic data: consumption is slowing down, manufacturing indices are hovering near the expansion-contraction line, and the US's $38 trillion debt incurs an annual interest of up to $1.3 trillion. Calculations show that a 100 basis point rate cut could save about $400 billion, which could stimulate the economy and boost midterm elections. But the hawks fear a rebound in inflation—after all, so much effort has been spent fighting inflation before, and they can't let that go to waste. Among the 12 committee members, 3 voted against, indicating how serious the disagreement is.

The crypto market has already sensed the shift. In recent days, Bitcoin has repeatedly hovered around the $90,000 mark, with market sentiment swinging between anticipation and anxiety. History shows that Fed rate cut cycles often act as an "accelerator" for crypto assets—during periods of liquidity easing, BTC and ETH are usually the first to benefit. We've seen both the brutal days of $700 million liquidations in a single day and miraculous surges driven by liquidity, experiencing both extremes.

The key now is: if this 100 basis point rate cut actually materializes, there's a high chance that BTC will break through the $100,000 threshold and ETH will see an "epic" rally. But what if the rate cut falls short of expectations? Those highly volatile coins might be the first to pull back, and the market will need to find a new direction.

Interestingly, a global rate-cutting wave has already begun—Russia, the UK, and other countries are cutting rates one after another. The Fed's final decision is like a key that could open the floodgates for the crypto market's "rising tide," or it could plunge the market into a "shock and pressure" dilemma. Continuous pressure from Trump and the monthly release of economic data will be decisive chips in this game.

What do you think? Will the Fed really implement a large 100 basis point rate cut under pressure? Can BTC break through $100,000 riding the wave of easing policies?