Understanding the three-layer logic of the real estate market can help us grasp the operating principles of Bitcoin. The bottom layer is basic living needs (residence), the middle layer is asset allocation (investment), and the top layer is leverage speculation (financial attributes). The fundamental demand stabilizes the base price, the middle demand expands the market, and the capital at the top drives the market upward faster.

Bitcoin follows the same three-layer structure.

The first layer is steadfast holders (we call them CB), who are like first-time homebuyers. When prices fall, they get excited and buy more on dips. They determine the lower limit of Bitcoin’s price—no matter how much it drops, someone will buy.

The second layer is new entrants’ funds (FB), bringing fresh blood, absorbing large sell-offs, and setting the upper limit of the price.

The third layer is short-term traders chasing quick gains and losses (MB), acting as an accelerator that can ignite market sentiment in a short period.

Now, here’s the interesting part of on-chain data: when CB’s accumulated holdings increase, what does it indicate? It shows that the chips held are shifting from those emotional, hype-driven speculators to more patient, less sensitive long-term investors. The increase in CB holdings actually reflects how confident they are in the current bear market trend. In other words— the more bearish, the more they buy.

This wave of decline has led most people to believe that Bitcoin is about to repeat the deep bear market of 2022. But at this very point, CB’s holdings have already accumulated to 2.34 million coins, hitting a new high in this cycle. What does this signal mean? Everyone should have a clear understanding.