I have been analyzing on-chain data for the past three days and nights and discovered an interesting phenomenon. I want to share with everyone what the whales are doing.

Let's start with a specific example. On January 3rd, a whale who has held ETH for nearly four years sold all 14,145 ETH and converted them into 492 WBTC, with an average transaction price of about $90,000 per BTC. Consider this operation carefully—a major holder who has survived the entire bull and bear cycles suddenly converting all ETH into BTC. This reflects not just a simple asset adjustment but a fundamental change in their view of the current market phase. This whale believes that at this point in time, BTC offers greater certainty and a safer margin compared to ETH.

Even more interesting is another phenomenon. There are whales continuously increasing their short positions on BTC and ETH. Currently, the total short position has exceeded $100 million, and on the ETH side, the number of short whales is four times that of the long whales. It sounds contradictory, but it’s actually quite understandable—this is a typical hedging strategy. Large funds don’t want to miss out on potential gains during an upward trend, nor do they want to be caught off guard by short-term pullbacks. They are adjusting their allocations to increase BTC weight while using short positions to hedge risks. This is the most authentic form of "cautious optimism."

Looking at these two trends together, the market consensus is gradually becoming clearer: BTC is unlikely to break out quickly in the short term and is more likely to enter a phase of sideways consolidation. In this rhythm, the capital is focused on optimizing the allocation structure rather than betting on the direction.