2026-01-07 06:20:49

Every time a certain cryptocurrency crashes, you can see a bunch of analyses claiming it's due to fundamental issues. But here's a key question—does a price drop necessarily mean the fundamentals have worsened? Conversely, if the fundamentals deteriorate, does the price have to fall?

Honestly, very few people truly understand the saying "The market is a voting machine in the short term, a weighing machine in the long term."

Of course, there are reasons for a price decline, but the problem is that these reasons often have little to do with the fundamentals. For example, a large fund might get liquidated, causing the coin they hold to drop sharply in a short period. Or macro interest rate environments change—does that relate to the project's fundamentals? Or a major fund is continuously redeemed, forced to sell off its heavy holdings, leading to a decline.

The same logic applies to price increases. Does an increase always have a reason? Not necessarily. Often, a rise is just a reason to keep rising, and a fall is just a reason to keep falling. This is the power of market sentiment.

So, ultimately, there are only two ways to make money.

**The first** is treating the market as a madman, focusing solely on discounted free cash flow. But this requires a premise—you must choose strong projects, have a deep understanding, and use money that isn't needed for a long time. By holding long-term to benefit from the company's cash flow, you don't care about short-term price fluctuations.

**The second** is understanding what the market really thinks and trading based on that logic. The market's temperament, in simple terms, is human nature—a collection of living people, always flickering with greed. Buying on the rise is driven by greed—believing it will continue to go up. Panic selling is also driven by greed—wanting to preserve some gains.

The former requires strong self-discipline and an ultra-long time horizon, while the latter requires keen insight into human nature and market rhythms. Most people can't be value investors nor understand the market's temperament, so they waver in the middle and end up getting harvested.

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consensus_whisperer

· 01-07 06:50

That's true, but how many people can really achieve the first approach? Most people are still self-deceiving, claiming to focus on fundamentals but actually watching candlestick charts. I think the key is to recognize yourself clearly—whether you want to do value investing or make quick money, don't try to do both. The most painful truth—most people can't be value investors nor understand the market temperament, wavering in between will only lead to failure. This is the reality.

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SchrodingerWallet

· 01-07 06:50

You're right, most people are just the ones being harvested by emotions. The most tragic are those who waver in the middle, lacking long-term conviction and unable to catch the rhythm. This market depends on whether you want to bet on human nature or on the project. Oh, many people always try to explain everything based on fundamentals, but they don't realize that the capital flow and emotions have already crushed the coin. Choose one: either lie flat and wait for cash flow, or study what these crazy people are thinking every day. I get annoyed when coins drop and people start analyzing fundamentals; sometimes they've been liquidated, what do fundamentals matter then? Honestly, most people are still wavering, only to lose everything and be free again. It's really about not knowing when to trust fundamentals and when to trust emotions. The most ruthless are those who can completely ignore price fluctuations—that's true conviction. You've explained it thoroughly, but I still want to know how to tell if I am the one being harvested.

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just_another_fish

· 01-07 06:47

Well said. Most people are just swinging between these two extremes and getting cut. I am that person. I belong to the middle ground. Not sure about the rhythm and lacking patience to hold for ten years, so it’s quite uncomfortable. Fundamentals? Laughs. When interest rates rise, all fundamentals become irrelevant. Those who truly make big money either have strong faith and hold tightly or understand the tricks of the big players. Honestly, there are very few people like that. I just wonder when I can advance to one of these types. Every time there’s a sharp drop, a bunch of experts come out to tell stories, but it’s really just armchair strategizing after the fact.

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Blockchainiac

· 01-07 06:47

That's so true. I often see those analysts talking about fundamentals, but it's really just armchair strategizing after the fact. When big funds dump, they don't care how strong your project is; it still crashes terribly. I'm among those who swing in the middle, haha, clearly being harvested. Retail investors who hold seeds seriously for five years and those who chase gains and sell at dips, their earnings are not much different. In fact, the former sleep better. Looking back now, the most vulnerable times were when emotions drove us to run, the more you want quick profits, the more you're harvested.

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NFTHoarder

· 01-07 06:46

Honestly, this paragraph kind of hit me, especially the part about wavering in the middle—so heartbreaking. --- So, instead of studying fundamentals every day, it's better to first figure out what kind of person you are. --- I've seen too many cases of large funds getting liquidated and crashing the market; it has nothing to do with the project itself. --- The essence of chasing gains and selling losses is greed, which ultimately stems from human nature. --- Holding long-term with those strict prerequisites is too demanding; who really has that much self-discipline? --- The temperament of the market is human psychology—something that can never be fully understood. --- Most people are stuck in the middle, unable to learn long-term holding or understand short-term fluctuations. --- That's right, a price drop doesn't necessarily mean the project has a problem; this understanding is crucial. --- The problem is, most people simply don't have the long-term time horizon to wait. --- Greed and fear cycle repeatedly; this is the true reflection of the market.

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SmartContractDiver

· 01-07 06:39

That's right, I'm tired of all that fundamental analysis talk. Nine and a half out of ten analysts are armchair quarterbacks after the fact. They only see me as that middleman who gets swept up in the harvest, neither holding long-term positions nor understanding human nature. Sometimes, it's really just about the flow of funds; fundamentals are irrelevant.

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SandwichTrader

· 01-07 06:36

That's right, but most people can't tell whether it's fundamentally bad or just being dumped. Hey, I ask you, that first method sounds simple, but how many people can actually do it in practice? Not looking at the coin price for ten years? That middle part about swinging is really hitting home; I am one of those who got harvested. When it comes to fundamentals, only when it drops does it mean deterioration; when it rises, it’s called a bright outlook. Isn’t that just armchair quarterbacking after the fact? Chasing gains and selling losses is indeed human nature, but who can resist? Watching others make money makes your eyes turn red. Doesn't that mean you either have to be a believer or a trader? Are the middlemen just waiting to be cut? Long-term holding sounds comfortable, but how strong does your mental resilience have to be? I really can't do it.

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