#数字资产动态追踪 $RENDER、$BROCCOLI714、$BREV...

The myth of Japan's 30-year debt is coming to an end, and the global financial markets are facing a chain reaction.

The once-derided joke "short sellers of Japanese bonds will have grass three meters high on their graves" has finally become a thing of the past. Entering 2025, Japan can no longer sustain the astronomical debt-to-GDP ratio of 240%—the 10-year Japanese government bond yield soared to 1.83%, hitting a nearly 208-year high, while the 40-year Japanese bonds broke through the 3.7% mark. The yen fell below 158 against the US dollar, causing a triple crash in the stock, bond, and forex markets.

The operating logic that had sustained for thirty years has completely broken down. Self-reinforcing borrowing, zero interest rate policies, reliance on overseas earnings to balance—this carefully designed closed loop disintegrated instantly in the face of the new Prime Minister’s 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan. The Bank of Japan now faces an unsolvable dilemma: raising interest rates could trigger fragile debt defaults, while not raising rates would lead to further yen depreciation and runaway prices. At the current 0.5% interest rate level, real interest rates remain in the negative zone of around -2.5%, silently shrinking savers’ assets.

A more dangerous signal is the reversal of capital flows. Japanese insurance companies are beginning to sell off overseas assets on a large scale and shift toward domestic bonds. The US bond market has lost its traditional largest buyer, forcing global financing costs higher. Remember the rate hike shock in 2024? The Nikkei plummeted 12.4%, and the crypto market was under pressure as well; a margin call involving 230,000 traders was just the tip of the iceberg. Now, those carry trade positions lurking in the market could trigger a concentrated blowout in 2026.

From the perspective of the crypto world, this situation has two sides. On one hand, yen depreciation has driven a surge in safe-haven demand, and Japanese regulators are even considering allowing banks to participate in Bitcoin trading, making digital assets a new option to combat inflation. On the other hand, if the global credit environment tightens significantly, highly leveraged crypto assets will be the first to be cleansed out.

Three critical points to watch: Japanese 30-year bonds breaking through 3.5%, the yen sharply depreciating past 160, and simultaneous triple crashes in stocks, bonds, and forex. Any one of these triggers could become a fuse for a global financial crisis. Will Japan choose to dilute its debt and slowly bottom out, or face a hard landing? Can digital assets become a new safe haven, or will they also be swept into a new wave of sell-offs? The answers to these questions depend on every market participant’s judgment.