ETH faces liquidation squeeze: Break above $3,377 or fall below $3,066, with nearly $2.5 billion in liquidation pressure emerging

2026-01-06 18:31:42

Ethereum’s current price is $3,217, seemingly calm on the surface but with underlying turbulent currents. According to on-chain data platform Coinglass, ETH faces significant liquidation pressures at two key price levels, which are directly related to the market’s next direction.

Liquidation Intensity Map: “Thunder” in Both Directions

Based on the latest data, if ETH breaks above $3,377, the cumulative short liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.398 billion. Conversely, if ETH falls below $3,066, the cumulative long liquidation strength on major CEXs will reach $1.122 billion.

Key Price Level	Liquidation Type	Liquidation Strength	Current Price Position
$3,377	Short Liquidation	$1.398 billion	Above by $160
Current	-	-	$3,217
$3,066	Long Liquidation	$1.122 billion	Below by $151

This data plainly indicates that ETH is caught between two liquidation pressure zones, with nearly $1.2–$1.4 billion in potential liquidations waiting to be triggered in either direction.

The Dilemma of the Current Price Position

Why is this position so critical?

ETH is currently trading at $3,217, exactly between the two key levels. This means:

There is $160 of space to break above (upside), about a 5% increase
There is $151 of space to fall below (downside), about a 4.7% decrease

From a market structure perspective, this is a relatively balanced but risky position. Any breakout in either direction could trigger a chain of liquidations.

Contradictory Market Sentiment Signals

Recent reports show ETH has risen 8.24% over the past 7 days, indicating some upward momentum. The 24-hour trading volume is $2.855 billion, reflecting active trading. However, there are also noteworthy details:

A 0.78% decline within 1 hour, suggesting short-term pullback pressure
64,000 ETH (about $6.46 billion) recently transferred to Coinbase, possibly indicating some holders are considering selling
Meanwhile, institutional accumulation continues: BitMine increased holdings by 32,977 ETH, and 7siblings holds 252,000 ETH worth over $8 billion

These signals are contradictory, reflecting market indecision.

Signals from Institutional Movements

Accumulation vs. Exchange Inflows

On one hand, institutions are continuing to build positions. Recent reports show BitMine added nearly 33,000 ETH last week, and large entities like 7siblings hold 252,000 ETH, surpassing the Ethereum Foundation to become the fifth-largest holder. This indicates a long-term bullish outlook.

On the other hand, large ETH transfers to exchanges are increasing. While this could be just liquidity management, in the current sensitive price zone, any large transfer might be interpreted by the market as a signal.

Support from ETF Capital Flows

According to recent reports, ETH spot ETF saw about $161 million in inflows last week, though less than Bitcoin’s $459 million, it still shows ongoing institutional interest. Such inflows generally indicate more stable buying pressure.

Two Possible Short-Term Trends

Conditions for Upside Breakout

If ETH can break above $3,377, the $1.398 billion short liquidation pressure will be activated, potentially triggering further upward movement. From a technical perspective, the 8.24% gain over the past 7 days already demonstrates some upward momentum.

Risks of Downward Pullback

If ETH falls below $3,066, the $1.122 billion long liquidation pressure will be triggered. Although this downside space appears relatively small (only $151), once liquidation occurs, it could accelerate the decline.

Summary

ETH is currently in a tense price zone. On the upside, $1.398 billion in short liquidation pressure; on the downside, $1.122 billion in long liquidation pressure—nearly $2.5 billion in total liquidation scale waiting to be triggered in either direction.

In the short term, key levels to watch are whether these two price points are broken. Institutional accumulation indicates bullish sentiment, but large ETH inflows to exchanges also suggest market participants are closely monitoring risks. For traders, the levels at $3,377 and $3,066 are critical, as any breakout could trigger chain reactions.

From a longer-term perspective, ETH’s strategic reserves and spot ETF holdings account for over 10.74% of supply, showing solid institutional backing. However, in the short term, the direction of this liquidation squeeze zone will determine the market rhythm in the coming days.

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