Goods are soaring, and the stock market is continuously rising: signals of market improvement are appearing frequently, with gold approaching $4220

Last Friday, U.S. stocks reopened after the Thanksgiving holiday. Although the market closed three hours early, market sentiment clearly improved. The three major indices continued their rally, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.61%, the S&P 500 up 0.54%, and the Nasdaq up 0.65%, all posting five consecutive days of gains. Chinese concept stocks also performed well, with the Golden Dragon Index rebounding 0.54%. In Europe, the FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX 30 indices rose by 0.27%, 0.29%, and 0.29%, respectively.

The most direct reflection of the market’s risk appetite recovery is seen in the commodities market. Spot silver surged by 5.7% to $56.46 per ounce, breaking the historical peak set during the tense London market in October. LME copper futures also performed strongly, rising 2.5% to reach a new all-time high. Gold increased by 1.35%, breaking the $4200 mark, with the latest quote at $4218.7 per ounce. The synchronized decline of the VIX fear index and the MOVE index further confirmed the improvement in market sentiment.

Tech and Retail Double Drivers, Record Consumer Data

Black Friday shopping season arrived as expected, with U.S. consumers’ enthusiasm exceeding expectations. According to Adobe analytics, online sales on Black Friday reached $11.8 billion, a record high, up 9.1% from last year. Salesforce data shows that total consumer spending, including offline, reached $18 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, with luxury goods and accessories being the most popular categories.

In tech stocks, Walmart and Amazon shares rose by 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively, with Amazon being the strongest performer among Dow components. Alphabet temporarily rose 2.2% but closed flat, while Intel soared 8.7% to $40, driven by expectations of securing low-cost M-chip orders for Apple, marking five consecutive days of gains with a total increase of over 18%. In contrast, Nvidia’s stock fell 1.8%, indicating market rotation.

Macro Outlook: Energy, Taxation, and Trade Changes

OPEC+ reached consensus to maintain a pause on production increases in the first quarter of next year. The organization approved a mechanism to assess each member’s maximum sustainable capacity, laying the foundation for 2027 production quotas. This move is significant for coordinating capacity differences among members and enhancing the credibility of production cut measures.

The UK HM Revenue & Customs issued new regulations that, starting January 2026, all crypto exchanges operating in the UK must collect and retain full transaction records of users and report them to the authorities in 2027 to prevent tax evasion. Crypto users need to regularize their tax status by the end of 2026.

Additionally, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME) experienced a system outage last Friday, with its front-end trading system CME Direct suspended due to cooling system failure at the Aurora data center in Illinois, but later resumed operation. After trading resumed, the COMEX silver main contract surged over 6%, breaking through $57 per ounce, with the year-to-date increase approaching 100%.

Semiconductor and AI Stocks Diverge: Intel Regains Favor, Palantir Sells Off

Micron Technology announced a $9.6 billion plan to build a factory in western Japan to produce high-bandwidth memory(HBM) chips for AI applications, with shipments expected around 2028. The Japanese government will provide up to 500 billion yen in subsidies.

In contrast, AI concept stocks like Palantir experienced a collective sell-off in November, declining 16% for the month, their worst performance since August 2023. Despite quarterly earnings beating expectations and two consecutive quarters of revenue exceeding $1 billion, several brokerages questioned its valuation. Investor Michael Burry shorted the stock, intensifying market pressure, and Palantir’s CEO Karp publicly responded twice.

Analysts expect Intel to start supplying entry-level M-series processors to Apple as early as 2027, which could open new opportunities for Intel’s long-term growth.

Precious Metals Outlook and Latest Cryptocurrency Market

Goldman Sachs survey shows that over 30% of respondents expect gold prices to break $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, while another third expect prices between $4,500 and $5,000. Overall, more than 70% of respondents are optimistic about gold prices next year. Central bank buying and fiscal concerns are considered the main drivers pushing gold higher.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is at $91,554, down 0.79% in 24 hours, and Ethereum is at $3,034.2, up 1.49% in 24 hours. In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index night session futures closed at 26,022 points, 163 points higher than the previous close.

The US dollar index slightly declined by 0.05% to 99.47, with the 10-year US Treasury yield around 4.017%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day. WTI crude oil fell 0.12% to $58.48 per barrel.