RMB exchange rate rises to 6.85? Goldman Sachs predicts accelerated internationalization process by 2026

Goldman Sachs latest research makes a bold prediction: by 2026, the RMB to USD exchange rate will appreciate to 6.85 yuan. This reflects not only changes in exchange rate figures but also the deepening advancement of the RMB internationalization strategy.

The current appreciation trend is now inevitable

As of November 26, the USD to onshore RMB fell to 7.0824, and the USD to offshore RMB fell to 7.0779, both hitting new lows in over a year. This is not a random fluctuation but the result of a series of policies and market forces working together.

Data shows that the RMB exchange rate index rose to 98.22 on November 21, reaching a new high since April this year. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts has opened up space for RMB appreciation, and domestic monetary authorities are also intentionally guiding this trend. The People’s Bank of China has continuously adjusted the daily midpoint setting, and state-owned banks frequently intervene in the foreign exchange market. These measures collectively push up the overall trend of the RMB.

Internationalization becomes the core driving force

From a deeper perspective, the RMB’s appreciation implicitly reflects the Chinese government’s internationalization ambitions. Kelvin Lam, senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, pointed out that this stable appreciation demonstrates confidence in the RMB, similar to the measures taken during the 1998 Asian financial crisis to prevent RMB depreciation and maintain regional currency stability.

Kiyong Seong, Chief Asia Macro Strategist at Société Générale, believes that demonstrating RMB resilience in a complex international market environment is strong evidence of its rising international status.

International transaction volume has surged

The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements reveals the tangible progress of RMB internationalization. Since the last survey in 2022, the average daily trading volume of USD to RMB has increased by nearly 60%, reaching $781 billion, accounting for over 8% of total global daily foreign exchange trading. These figures indicate that demand and participation in the international market for RMB are rapidly increasing.

Future trend: appreciation will continue

Comparing historical data, it’s not hard to see that in 2018, the RMB depreciated about 5% amid the US trade war, while by 2025, the RMB appreciated nearly 3%. This shift not only reflects macroeconomic improvements but also demonstrates clear policy guidance.

Based on these trends, Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the exchange rate may reach the 7.0 mark by the end of the year, and continue to appreciate to 6.85 within a year. They further point out that, based on a comprehensive assessment of economic and non-economic factors, RMB internationalization has become a strategic priority for the Chinese government, with significant acceleration expected in the coming years.

This means that for international investors and market participants, changes in the RMB exchange rate are not just numerical fluctuations but an intuitive reflection of the RMB’s rising position in the global financial landscape.