## Can Ethereum Hold the $2850 Level? Support Battle Under Dual Pressure of Whale Sell-Off and ETF Redemptions

ETH's recent movement has fallen into a stalemate—price repeatedly swings around $2,850 after facing significant resistance at $3,100. According to Coinglass data, Ethereum's liquidation volume in the past 24 hours reached $215 million, with 86% of liquidations being longs, indicating that the bulls' defense is gradually weakening.

### Large holders stop-loss, on-chain realized losses exceed $1 billion

On-chain data best illustrates the story. Whale addresses holding 10K-100K ETH collectively reduced 150K ETH over the past 4 days, a clear stop-loss signal. Santiment's realized profit/loss indicator shows investors have locked in over $1 billion in losses within a week—large holders are voting with their feet.

Meanwhile, the wave of Ethereum ETF redemptions is also expanding. According to FarSide data, ETF net outflows have continued for 7 days, totaling over $1 billion. This institutional exit further adds to the market selling pressure.

### $2860 becomes a key level—where is the cost basis of accumulation addresses?

Here's an important technical detail: CryptoQuant data shows that long-term holding accumulation addresses with no history of selling have an average cost basis around $2,860. Historical patterns indicate that whenever ETH approaches this cost line, a rebound is usually triggered. The current support at $2,850 coincides with this line within a range of oscillation, explaining why the price has a breathing space here.

### Technical outlook: Rebound needs to overcome multiple hurdles

To break out of the current deadlock, ETH first needs to return above $3,100, which was a previous high and a clear psychological resistance. Once broken, the next target is $3,470, but it must also clear the 20-day EMA as a barrier.

The opposite scenario is also clear: if the price falls below $2,850 support, ETH is likely to plunge directly to $2,380. Currently, the RSI has fallen out of the neutral zone, and the stochastic indicator is approaching oversold conditions, indicating that bearish sentiment still dominates the market.

### The current dilemma: whales are reducing holdings, retail investors are cutting losses

The recent decline is essentially a multi-layered sell-off: large holders are stop-lossing, institutions are redeeming, retail investors are cutting losses. Whether $2,850 can hold depends on whether new buying interest enters the market. If whale addresses choose to accumulate at this level instead of further reducing holdings, a rebound could be possible; otherwise, a breakdown and downward move are highly probable.