Silver( at $58 fluctuates within the box range... Fed decisions and labor indicators will determine the direction

Currently, silver prices(XAG/USD) are showing limited volatility around $58, as cautious market sentiment persists ahead of the Federal Reserve(Fed)'s December FOMC(Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. During late Asian trading hours, spot silver remains within a range of around $58 per ounce, delaying a clear directional move. Investors are avoiding large positions until the Fed’s monetary policy path is confirmed, focusing on capturing signals amid market uncertainty.

Labor Market Signal ‘7.2 million’ as a Short-term Benchmark… Attention on JOLTS Release

The key variable for short-term market volatility is the October JOLTS(Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) to be released at 15:00(GMT) on Tuesday. Market consensus expects U.S. job openings to reach about 7.2 million; deviations from this estimate could significantly sway silver prices.

If the figure falls below expectations, it would confirm a slowdown in labor demand, potentially strengthening the Fed’s stance on further easing. This could also exert upward pressure on silver, especially in conjunction with a weaker dollar. Conversely, if job openings remain robust, it may signal a resilient economy, making additional rate cuts by the Fed less likely and capping silver’s upside.

Increasing Expectations for a Fed Pivot… 89.4% Probability of Rate Cut

According to CME FedWatch data, the futures market is pricing in an 89.4% probability that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate by 25bp(0.25%) at the December meeting, lowering it to 3.50–3.75%. A rate cut appears highly likely.

In typical rate-cutting cycles, the opportunity cost of holding precious metals like silver, which do not generate interest income, decreases, making them more attractive. NY Fed President John Williams stated in a speech at the end of November that “the U.S. economy has entered a phase of moderating growth, and labor demand is gradually weakening.” Such dovish comments have further fueled market expectations of rate cuts.

Role of Offshore Financial Hubs like the Cayman Islands in Global Asset Reallocation

The current market environment is also linked to international capital flows passing through offshore financial centers such as the Cayman Islands. As global investors reallocate assets between safe assets and interest-free assets during rate-cutting phases, demand for precious metals, including silver, is being reevaluated.

Overall Assessment of the Current Situation

The silver market is currently waiting at a technical equilibrium point of around $58, with two main catalysts: the JOLTS results and the FOMC decision. With a high likelihood of a shift in Fed policy being priced in, the degree of cooling in the labor market will be a key factor in determining future upside potential for silver.