DDR4 shortage in the 21st century triggers a memory turnaround—how does South Asia Science seize the opportunity amid the turning point?

The global memory supply chain is experiencing an unprecedented restructuring. As AI servers drive demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the three major manufacturers are rapidly shifting DDR4 capacity toward the HBM sector, rewriting the industry landscape. Nanya Technology (2408), as a company still holding substantial DDR4 capacity, has become a target for global system vendors, with its stock price rising to 189 yuan today, reaching a new intraday high of 190 yuan, an increase of over 7% in a single day.

Process Technology Becomes the Threshold for Winners

Nanya’s 1B process (second-generation 10nm class process) has entered a critical harvesting phase. Latest industry data shows that the company’s self-developed 1B process products will account for over 30% of total bit output in 2025, a leading position in the industry. Especially, its 16Gb DDR5 5600 products have stabilized in mass production and delivery, with higher-speed 6400 MT/s specifications entering verification stages, rapidly closing the process gap with international giants.

Compared to competitors, Nanya has successfully advanced DDR5 penetration while maintaining pricing power in the DDR4 niche market. As the shipment ratio of DDR5 surpasses the 10% revenue threshold, the qualitative change in product mix is directly boosting gross margin recovery. Institutional forecasts suggest that ASP (Average Selling Price) will increase by an astonishing 55% this quarter, a rare occurrence in the past decade of memory cycles.

External Supply Shocks Create Unexpected Bonuses

The market vacuum caused by capacity squeeze is being filled. ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) announced that its DDR4 monthly capacity will be halved from 20,000 to 10,000 units by 2026, and Micron’s Crucial brand will cease some DDR4 production early in 2026. These two pieces of news have triggered intense turbulence in the global DDR4 market.

Against this backdrop, Nanya’s advantage in high-efficiency, large-capacity DDR4 capacity is amplified. The phenomenon of system vendors scrambling for stock has shifted from expectation to reality, and the rise in ASP is no longer hypothetical but ongoing. This supply gap is unlikely to be filled by new capacity in the short term, providing Nanya with a time window to maintain high prices.

Profit Forecasts Are Collectively Upgraded, 230 Yuan Becomes the New Target

Market expectations for Nanya’s outlook in 2026 are undergoing dramatic shifts. The latest research report from state-owned investment advisors has significantly raised the target price from 160 yuan to 230 yuan, a 44% increase. This optimistic upgrade is based on confidence in gross margins challenging a historic high of 64.5%, with full-year EPS expected to explosively grow from an initial estimate of 14 yuan to 23.25 yuan, an increase of over 65%.

Using the 230 yuan target as a reference, it indicates that Nanya still has further upside in the short term. Behind this upward revision in expectations is not just market sentiment but a revaluation of its core position in the new AI infrastructure cycle.

Technical Indicators Reveal Clues on Chips

Today’s candlestick shows a long bullish body, with the stock price firmly above all moving averages, and RSI and KD indicators aligned in bullish configurations. Recent trading volume has hit new highs, hinting at early signs of chip market chip distribution, but as long as subsequent support at the gap remains effective, the stock still has structural upward momentum.

However, investors should be cautious, as 2025 is nearing its end, and market volume may face seasonal disruptions due to the upcoming holiday period. The memory sector surged collectively today, and the risk of excessive capital concentration cannot be ignored. If profit-taking selling pressure emerges, short-term volatility could intensify.

Key Nodes and Future Market Observation

In the long term, Nanya has the characteristics of transitioning from a traditional cyclical stock to a beneficiary of AI infrastructure. Future stock price movements will closely monitor the trends of DRAM spot and contract prices in early 2026. If the upward price trend continues, Nanya’s bullish journey will truly begin. Market expectations for its positioning in high-end memory are heating up, which may mark the starting point of a reordering of memory manufacturers’ roles amid the current favorable environment.