Institutions predict gold will surge towards the 10,000 yuan mark: Is this logic valid?

From 4,500 to 10,000: Institutional Bold Imagination

Recently, comments on gold prices have become increasingly aggressive. Leading institutions like JPMorgan Chase and Yardeni Research have raised their forecasts, with Yardeni Research even proposing a startling target — by the end of 2029, gold could reach $10,000 per ounce.

In comparison, JPMorgan Chase’s prediction is relatively conservative but still optimistic. The institution believes that by Q4 2026, the average gold price will reach $5,055 per ounce, and then continue upward to $5,400 by the end of 2027.

Current Reality: Gold Has Reached a New Historic High

Data from December 24 shows that gold prices have already hit $4,525 per ounce, setting a new record. Silver has also risen, reaching a new high of $72.59 per ounce. The year-to-date statistics are even more shocking — gold has surged by 72%, while silver leads the precious metals market with a 145% increase.

Logic Behind the Rise: Central Bank Reserves and USD Allocation Shift

JPMorgan Chase points out that official reserves held by central banks are continuously increasing, and global investors still have significant room to diversify their gold holdings within their asset allocations. This forms the fundamental support for the long-term rise of gold.

More importantly, the “0.5% assumption” — if only 0.5% of global offshore USD assets shift into gold holdings, it would generate enough new demand to push gold prices up to $6,000 per ounce. Although this assumption sounds high, given the current diversification of USD reserves, it is not entirely impossible.

Risks and Drivers: Geopolitical Tensions Escalate

On the news front, geopolitical situations are intensifying. The U.S. has imposed a blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers and is considering military action. Such risk events typically strengthen the safe-haven attributes of precious metals. Meanwhile, Hasset, a candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, stated that the U.S. rate cut pace has fallen far below that of other central banks, further boosting demand for alternative store-of-value assets like gold.

Rational Thinking: Is $10,000 Realistic?

While the target of $10,000 may sound aggressive, under the combined influence of ongoing central bank asset accumulation, USD diversification, and rising geopolitical risks, this figure is not purely a fantasy. However, it’s important to note that the journey from the current $4,525 to the ultimate $10,000 will not be smooth — it will inevitably involve multiple adjustments and fluctuations.

For ordinary investors, the key is not to chase the high but to understand the deeper logic behind gold’s rise — which reflects the reshaping of the USD system, adjustments in global central bank policies, and portfolio optimization.