Gold Price Predictions 2026: Will the Five-Point Mark Reach Thousands of Dollars?

As the year comes to an end, investors’ focus is on the trajectory of gold in the coming year. After a remarkable rise reaching $4380 per ounce last October, the market is asking a crucial question: Will gold continue to break through the upper limit to reach $5000 in 2026?

What actually happened in 2025?

This year marked a real turning point for gold prices. The year started with an average of $3455 per ounce, but global economic pressures pushed prices sharply higher. In mid-October, the ounce broke the $4300 level for the first time in history, before retreating toward $4000 in November.

This volatility is not random — it reflects a genuine struggle between positive and negative factors affecting the market alternately.

Five main factors supporting the rise in 2026

1. Record investment demand

Data from the World Gold Council showed that total demand in the first half of 2025 reached 1206 tons in Q1 and 1249 tons in Q2. More importantly? Gold ETFs( attracted massive inflows, raising assets under management to $472 billion, a 6% increase.

In the US alone, gold ETFs injected $21 billion during the first half. About 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time, a strong indicator of a lasting strategic shift rather than temporary speculation.

) 2. Central banks buying at an accelerated pace

The data speaks clearly: Central banks added 244 tons of gold in Q1 2025 alone — about 24% above the quarterly average. China alone added 65 tons, and Turkey surpassed 600 tons in reserves.

Now, 44% of global central banks hold gold reserves### compared to only 37% in 2024(. This is not a temporary trend — it’s a strategic shift toward diversification away from the US dollar.

) 3. Limited supply at rising prices

Mine production in Q1 reached 856 tons, a slight increase of 1%, which is much lower than demand growth. What worsens the crisis? Recycled gold amounts declined by 1% as owners prefer to hold onto their assets expecting further increases.

Production costs rose to $1470 per ounce### — the highest in a decade(, making expansion limited and slow. This imbalance between demand and supply will remain a dilemma in 2026.

) 4. Easing monetary policies gaining momentum

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October to a range of 3.75-4.00%, the second cut since December 2024. Markets are now pricing in a third cut in December 2025.

BlackRock expects the Fed to target an interest rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026 in the moderate scenario. When real yields decline, gold becomes more attractive as a hedge and store of value.

5. Geopolitical risks and global debt

Global public debt exceeds 100% of GDP. China and the US are in escalating trade tensions. Tensions in the Middle East have not eased. This climate of uncertainty makes gold a safe haven essential.

Reuters pointed out that geopolitical ambiguity in 2025 increased demand for gold by 7% year-over-year.

Major analyst forecasts for 2026

Global banks have spoken openly:

• HSBC: expects gold to reach $5000 in the first half of 2026, with an annual average of $4600
• Bank of America: announced a target of $5000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4400
• Goldman Sachs: revised its forecast to $4900 per ounce
• J.P. Morgan: expects gold to reach $5055 by mid-2026

The most consensus range among analysts is between $4800-$5000 as a peak, with an annual average between $4200-$4800.

Challenges that could hinder the rise

There is still a downside to watch:

• Profit-taking: if investors enter a selling wave to lock in gains, prices could correct toward $4200
• Price credibility test: prices above $4800 may face strong resistance due to weak industrial demand
• Unexpected economic shock: despite positive outlooks, any major negative development could push prices below $3800

However, HSBC ruled out the possibility of a sharp decline, stating that strong support remains at $3800 unless an economic catastrophe occurs.

Technical analysis for early 2026

Currently, gold is trading around $4065### as of November 21(. Technical analysis indicates:

• Main support: $4000) a critical level(
• First resistance: $4200
• Next resistance: $4400, then $4680
• Relative Strength Index: at 50) neutral, neither overbought nor oversold(
• MACD indicator: remains above zero) overall trend bullish(

The overall picture suggests a sideways upward range between $4000-$4220 in the near term, with gold maintaining support from the main trendline.

Gold price forecasts in the Middle East region

) In Egypt According to CoinCodex forecasts, the gold price could reach around 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce in 2026, an increase of approximately 158% over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia

Assuming a stable exchange rate, if the ounce approaches $5000, it could translate to about 18,750-19,000 SAR per ounce.

In the UAE

Converted to AED, the price may be around 18,375-19,000 AED per ounce under the same scenario.

Important note: These estimates assume exchange rate stability and continued global demand without major economic fluctuations.

How to benefit from gold movements?

There are several ways to invest in these opportunities:

• Direct purchase: physical gold bars
• Gold ETFs: specialized gold exchange-traded funds
• Mining stocks: companies involved in gold extraction and trading
• CFDs###: for short-term trading on price movements

If you choose CFDs, make sure to select a trusted broker offering an easy interface, fast execution, real-time news, 24/7 customer service, high security standards, and diverse deposit options.

Summary: Is 2026 the golden year for gold?

The evidence strongly leans toward continued growth in 2026. Record investment demand, central bank support, limited supply, and easing monetary policies — all create an ideal environment for a new breakout.

Forecasts suggest gold will trade within a range of $4200-$4800 on average, with a real chance to reach $5000 if real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak.

But caution is essential: profit-taking may occur, and unexpected economic shocks are always on the horizon. The key is to monitor the broader global context — interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions — to understand the true path of gold in the coming year.