How much more can gold rise? Institutions are calling for $10,000, with a potential increase so huge it's unbelievable

To be honest, this wave of the gold market is indeed a bit outrageous. Just after breaking through the $4,500 mark, institutions started calling for a target of $10,000. What is the underlying logic behind this?

This year’s gains are already shocking, is there more room to grow?

Let’s look at the numbers: since the beginning of 2025, gold has already increased by 72%, and silver is even more impressive, with a rise of 145%. On December 24, just past, gold surged to a record high of $4,525 per ounce, and silver also hit a new record at $72.59 per ounce.

Such gains are comparable to speculative stocks in any asset class. But this is just the beginning.

Why are institutions still raising their expectations?

JPMorgan’s view: Central banks and investment institutions are massively allocating gold, and this trend is far from over. They forecast that by the end of 2026, the average price of gold will rise to $5,055 per ounce, and by the end of 2027, it will further surge to $5,400 per ounce.

More aggressive predictions: If just 0.5% of offshore dollar assets flow into gold, the resulting new demand alone could push gold prices to $6,000 per ounce. JPMorgan points out that the upward potential still dominates.

Yardeni Research is even more bullish: This research firm has directly raised its gold target price for the end of 2026 from $5,000 to $6,000. The most aggressive forecast is that by the end of 2029, gold could break through $10,000 per ounce.

What is the driving force behind this?

The current situation is quite special. Geopolitical risks are escalating — the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and may even take military action. Fed Chair candidate Hassett has also signaled that the US’s rate cut pace is far behind other central banks.

What do these signals combined mean? Central banks need gold to hedge against uncertainty, and investors need gold for diversification. The value of gold as the ultimate safe-haven asset is being re-priced.

Conclusion: $10,000 is not a pipe dream but a logical projection based on central bank actions and capital flows. The only question is the timeline — how long will it take to realize this?