## Gold's Half-Century Bull Run Analysis | From $35 to $4,300, Will the Next 50 Years Repeat History?

Since ancient times, gold has served not only as a medium of exchange in the economy but also as a symbol of wealth and industrial raw material, thanks to its high density, excellent ductility, and corrosion resistance. Looking back at the gold price trend over the past 50 years, despite fluctuations, the long-term trend has been steadily upward, especially after 2025, with prices reaching new highs. Will this half-century-long rally continue into the next 50 years? What are the regularities of gold price volatility? Is it suitable for long-term allocation or swing trading? These questions merit in-depth exploration.

## The 50-Year Transformation of Gold Prices Since the Collapse of the Bretton Woods System

To understand today’s gold price per ounce, we must start from 1971. On August 15 of that year, U.S. President Nixon announced the detachment of the dollar from gold, ending the Bretton Woods system established after World War II. Before that, the dollar was pegged to gold at a fixed rate of $35 per ounce. After the detachment, the dollar began to float freely, and gold was liberated from its fixed price.

Over the past 50+ years, gold prices have surged from $35 per ounce to a high of $4,300 in October 2025, an increase of over 120 times. The most dramatic rally occurred from 2024 onward, with a single-year increase of over 104%. This upward process was not a straight line but experienced four distinct bullish phases.

## The Driving Forces Behind Four Major Bullish Cycles

**First Wave: Early 1970s Trust Crisis (1970-1975)**

After the detachment, international gold prices rose from $35 to $183, a gain of over 400% in five years. This rally was driven by shaken confidence in the dollar—since the dollar was once backed by gold, losing that support led people to prefer holding gold over dollars. Subsequently, the oil crisis erupted, with the U.S. increasing money supply to buy oil, further pushing up gold prices. But as the crisis eased, confidence in the dollar was restored, and gold prices fell back to around $100.

**Second Wave: Late 1970s Geopolitical Turmoil (1976-1980)**

Gold prices soared from $104 to $850, a rise of over 700% in three years. The catalysts were the second Middle East oil crisis and geopolitical tensions—events like the Iran hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan triggered global recession and soaring inflation. This speculative frenzy overreacted; after the oil crisis eased, prices quickly retreated, and for the next two decades, gold mostly traded between $200 and $300.

**Third Wave: 2000s Financial Crises (2001-2011)**

From $260 to $1921, a gain of over 700% in ten years. The 9/11 attacks sparked global anti-terror wars, the U.S. issued debt to fund military expenses, and housing prices soared, followed by rate hikes that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed’s quantitative easing further boosted gold prices, and the European debt crisis in 2011 pushed gold to a band high of $1921.

**Fourth Wave: The New Normal Post-2015 (After 2015)**

This rally was driven by more complex factors—negative interest rate policies in Japan and Europe, de-dollarization trends worldwide, the Fed’s aggressive QE in 2020, Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Middle East tensions in 2023, and more. Gold prices stabilized above $2000. The surge in 2024 was particularly remarkable, with an annual increase of over 104%. As 2025 approaches, factors like escalating Middle East tensions, new developments in Russia-Ukraine, U.S. tariffs, global stock market volatility, and a weakening dollar continue to push gold to new highs.

## Gold Investment Returns: How Do They Compare to Stocks and Bonds?

Data from the past 50 years is quite revealing: gold has increased by 120 times, while the Dow Jones index has risen about 51 times. On the surface, gold seems superior, but this is a trap—gold’s gains are not evenly distributed. Between 1980 and 2000, gold was stagnant between $200 and $300 for 20 years; buying then would have yielded almost no return. How many people can wait through several 50-year cycles?

In the last 30 years, stock returns have been better, followed by gold, and then bonds. In terms of investment difficulty, bonds are the simplest (fixed interest income), gold is next (profit from price differences), and stocks are the most challenging (requiring selecting good companies and long-term holding).

Gold’s returns depend entirely on timing—catching bullish rallies or sharp declines can yield returns surpassing stocks and bonds. Conversely, missing these opportunities may lead to long-term stagnation.

## Five Gold Investment Channels Compared

**1. Physical Gold:** Buying gold bars or jewelry. Advantages: high privacy, can be worn as accessories. Disadvantages: inconvenient trading.

**2. Gold Savings Account:** Bank-provided gold custody certificates. Convenient to carry but with large bid-ask spreads, no interest paid, suitable for long-term holding.

**3. Gold ETFs:** More liquid than savings accounts, easy to trade. However, management fees are charged by the issuer, and long-term stagnation can erode value.

**4. Gold Futures:** Suitable for experienced investors, with leverage amplification, allowing both long and short positions. Higher risk.

**5. Gold CFDs:** The most popular tool among retail investors in recent years. Flexible leverage, low trading costs, high capital efficiency. Some regulated platforms offer gold CFD trading, supporting two-way trading, with minimum deposit as low as $50, minimum lot size 0.01, maximum leverage up to 1:100. T+0 trading allows entering and exiting at any time, with fast execution and real-time charts, ideal for swing trading.

## Asset Allocation Wisdom in Economic Cycles

Gold, stocks, and bonds each have their roles. During economic growth, corporate profits are strong, stocks tend to rise, while gold and bonds are less favored; during recessions, stocks fall out of favor, and gold’s hedging and bonds’ fixed income attract capital.

A more prudent approach is to allocate assets like stocks, bonds, and gold according to individual risk tolerance. When major geopolitical events like Russia-Ukraine war or inflation-driven rate hikes occur suddenly, diversified asset allocation can effectively offset some volatility, making the portfolio more resilient.

## Conclusion: Will the Gold Bull Continue for 50 Years?

Although gold performed brilliantly over the past 50 years, replicating this in the future is unlikely. The drivers of gold’s rise—geopolitical risks, monetary policies, inflation expectations—are external factors that change rapidly and are hard to predict. Therefore, gold is more suitable for swing trading during clear market trends rather than long-term holding.

It’s worth noting that even when bull markets end, each bottom in gold’s cycle tends to be higher, reflecting its long-term value preservation. Understanding this pattern helps avoid futile efforts. In the face of an uncertain future, staying flexible and adjusting strategies timely is the best way to navigate the market.