Bitcoin Recovers Momentum as Institutional Flows Support BTC Above $94K

Institutional Support Strengthens Bitcoin’s Recovery Path

Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience this week, maintaining recovery momentum above the $94,000 mark on Thursday following a rebound from critical support zones. The institutional sector is beginning to signal renewed confidence, with US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recording positive inflows totaling $21.12 million on Wednesday—marking the second consecutive day of capital accumulation. This represents a meaningful shift from the sustained outflow pressures witnessed previously.

According to market data from SoSoValue, the recent inflow pattern, while modest compared to earlier rallies, suggests declining selling pressure among large investors. Wednesday’s $21.12 million influx followed Tuesday’s stronger $128.64 million inflow, though analysts note these figures remain modest relative to the heavy redemption activity from preceding weeks. For Bitcoin to establish sustainable upside movement, these institutional flows must not only persist but accelerate.

On-Chain Signals Reveal Market Fragility Despite Price Recovery

Beneath the surface recovery, Glassnode’s structural analysis paints a cautious picture of Bitcoin’s intermediate-term positioning. The asset remains confined within the $81,000–$89,000 structural range, having already breached several key historical cost-basis support levels. This price action mirrors the consolidation pattern observed during Q1 2022’s post-peak correction phase, characterized by weakening demand absorption and deteriorating market structure.

The most alarming indicator comes from the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, which has collapsed to 0.07—well below the neutral threshold of 4.3x. This metric reveals that recent investors are underwater, with realized losses dramatically exceeding realized profits. Such capitulation signals indicate that available liquidity has largely evaporated following the intensive buying pressure seen throughout mid-2025, when long-term accumulation accelerated.

Technical Setup Points Toward $100K Test or $85K Risk

Bitcoin’s daily technical structure offers mixed signals for traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 41, trending upward from oversold territory toward the neutral 50 level, suggesting diminishing bearish momentum. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) generated a bullish crossover on Thursday, providing technical confirmation of bullish intent.

Upside targets remain defined: if Bitcoin sustains above critical resistance, the $100,000 psychological level represents the next logical extension target for recovery traders. Conversely, should selling pressure resurface, downside risk extends toward the $85,000 support zone, where the True Market Mean price basis resides.

What’s Needed for Sustained Rally

Glassnode analysts conclude that without fresh capital inflows and reclamation of broken cost-basis levels, Bitcoin is destined for prolonged low-conviction consolidation. A protracted low-liquidity environment heightens contraction risk, potentially triggering breakdown scenarios similar to Q1 2022’s weakness.

The critical question for market participants: will institutional demand intensify in coming sessions, or will the current $94K-level prove merely a relief bounce within a larger consolidation? Liquidity conditions will be the ultimate arbiter of Bitcoin’s directional bias in the near term.