Will Gold Break $4,100? Fed Divided as Market Reprices December Rate Cut Odds

Gold is quietly accumulating strength, testing resistance near $4,110 in Asian trading as uncertainty deepens around the delayed US jobs report. The September NFP, originally scheduled weeks ago, finally arrives Thursday following a 43-day government shutdown that threw economic data schedules into chaos.

The NFP Wild Card: What Could Move Gold Next

The missing jobs report has created a vacuum in the Fed’s labor market assessment, and traders know this data could be decisive. A disappointing print would instantly reignite rate-cut bets and send gold higher—lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal since gold generates no yield. Conversely, strong employment figures could kill the rate-cut narrative entirely.

Here’s the real story: market pricing has shifted dramatically. Last week, traders were betting 60% odds on a December Fed cut. Today, that’s down to just 30%, according to CME FedWatch tool data. That’s a massive repricing in a matter of days, reflecting growing skepticism about further easing.

Fed Officials Throwing Curveballs

The latest FOMC minutes from their October 28-29 meeting reveal the central bank is deeply divided. Yes, they cut rates by 25 basis points last month, but several members openly signaled they’re done cutting—at least for December. This divided stance is exactly what’s keeping gold afloat. When policymakers lack consensus, markets gravitate toward safe havens like gold.

The path forward remains murky: some officials want more cuts, others want to pause. This ambiguity is gold’s best friend. As long as the Fed looks uncertain, yellow metal bulls have room to maneuver toward and beyond the $4,100 level.

Why This Matters for Your Portfolio

For traders tracking precious metals against other assets (like those monitoring USD to GBP exchange movements), gold’s relationship with Fed policy is the primary driver right now. Stronger dollar interest rates typically pressure gold; weaker rate prospects support it. Watch Thursday’s jobs report closely—it could be the catalyst that resolves this Fed hesitation one way or another.