Gold in 2026: Will we witness a historic jump towards $5000?

In 2025, gold achieved remarkable milestones, surpassing the $4,300 per ounce mark in mid-October before retreating again. The pressing question for every trader now: Will this momentum continue into 2026? And more importantly, will gold prices reach $5,000?

Factors Driving Gold Price Expectations Higher

Weak Dollar and Low Yields

Historically, gold moves inversely to the US dollar and real bond yields. In 2025, the dollar index declined by 7.64%, and 10-year US bond yields dropped from 4.6% to 4.07%. This financial environment enhances the appeal of gold as a hedge, especially with the Federal Reserve’s continued prospects of rate cuts.

Ongoing Institutional Demand

Data from the World Gold Council showed a sharp increase in investment demand. In Q2 2025, total demand reached 1,249 tons, up 3% annually, while value surged to $132 billion, a 45% increase. Gold ETF flows (ETFs) recorded record inflows, pushing assets under management to $472 billion.

Notably, 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time and maintained their positions even during short-term corrections. This reflects a genuine strategic shift in investor perception of gold as a long-term asset rather than just a speculative tool.

Central Bank Purchases Continue

Central banks worldwide increased their gold holdings, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025, a 24% rise over the five-year quarterly average. China alone added over 65 tons, marking its 22nd consecutive month of buying.

What supports gold price forecasts is that 44% of central banks now hold gold reserves compared to 37% in 2024. This indicates a growing desire to diversify reserves away from the US dollar, especially in emerging markets.

Limited Supply Not Keeping Pace with Demand

On the supply side, mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, a modest 1% annual increase. The problem is that this increase does not cover the gap between rising demand and limited supply.

Additionally, recycled gold declined by 1%, as holders prefer to retain their holdings amid expectations of continued price rises. Extraction costs also rose to $1,470 per ounce, the highest in a decade, limiting rapid expansion in production.

Geopolitical Tensions Remain Elevated

Escalating trade conflicts, tensions in the Middle East, and the Taiwan Strait have increased safe-haven demand for gold by 7% year-over-year. Geopolitical uncertainty prompts major funds to hedge against emerging market risks and energy volatility.

Gold Price Forecasts for 2026 from Major Banks

HSBC expects $5,000

The bank predicts gold will surge to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an average forecast of $4,600 during the year. This represents a significant jump from the $3,455 average in 2025.

Bank of America Raises Its Outlook

The bank raised its gold price forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average of $4,400, but warned of a possible short-term correction if investors start taking profits.

Goldman Sachs at $4,900

The bank adjusted its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing stronger inflows into gold ETFs and continued central bank buying.

J.P. Morgan Forecasts $5,055

Research indicates gold could reach approximately $5,055 by mid-2026.

Consensus: Between $4,800 and $5,000

The most common range among top analysts for gold price expectations is between $4,800 and $5,000 as a peak, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800 during the year.

Global Monetary Policy and Its Impact on Gold Price Expectations

The Federal Reserve has begun gradual rate cuts, lowering by 25 basis points in October to a range of 3.75-4.00%. Markets price in an additional 25 basis point cut in December 2025. BlackRock’s forecasts suggest the Fed may target a 3.4% interest rate by the end of 2026.

But the picture is more complex. The European Central Bank continues tightening, while the Bank of Japan remains accommodative. This divergence in monetary policies enhances gold’s role as a global hedge.

Challenges That Could Prevent Reaching $5,000

Downward Correction Possibility

HSBC warned that the upward momentum might weaken in the second half of 2026, with a correction toward $4,200 if investors start profit-taking. However, the bank rules out a drop below $3,800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Price Credibility Test

Goldman Sachs cautioned that prices above $4,800 could face a “credibility test,” meaning the ability of gold to sustain high levels amid weak industrial demand.

Technical Analysis for Early 2026

The close on Friday, November 21, 2025, was at $4,065 per ounce, after touching highs of $4,381 on October 20. The price broke a daily upward channel but remains attached to the main uptrend line.

Strong support is at $4,000. A clear daily close below this level could target $3,800 (Fibonacci retracement 50%) before resuming the upward trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is steady at 50, indicating neutrality between buying and selling pressures. The MACD remains positive.

Technical outlook: Gold will trade within a sideways upward-sloping range between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as it stays above the main trendline.

Gold Price Expectations in the Middle East Region

Egypt: Projections indicate gold could reach around 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce in 2026, an increase of 158.46% compared to current prices.

Saudi Arabia: If the price hits $5,000 per ounce, it could translate to approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR (Exchange rate 3.75 to 3.80 SAR per USD).

UAE: Similarly, the price could reach about 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

These projections are contingent on exchange rate stability and continued global demand without major economic fluctuations.

Summary: Gold Between Ambition and Caution

Gold price forecasts for 2026 reflect a real struggle between two forces: profit-taking on one side, and new buying waves from central banks and institutions on the other.

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to hit new all-time highs and possibly surpass $5,000. But if inflation eases and market confidence returns, the metal may enter a prolonged stabilization phase, preventing it from reaching ambitious levels.

One thing is certain: gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to the strategic shift in investor perception of it as a safe-haven asset rather than just a short-term speculative tool.