Is gold approaching the $5000 mark? Detailed gold price forecasts for 2026

Where is the actual gold price heading and what awaits it?

The year 2025 has started with successive surprises for the gold market, witnessing a sharp rise that culminated in surpassing the $4300 per ounce barrier in mid-October, before slipping to the $4000 region in November, reshaping investor outlooks on what the new year holds in terms of opportunities and tests. The annual average, which exceeded $3455 per ounce, reflects increasing pressures pushing prices upward. The question now is not only whether the rally will continue but also how high it can go.

What is driving gold prices higher?

A historic shift in investor behavior

Gold is no longer just a safe haven during crises but has transformed into a core tool in institutional investors’ portfolios. Data shows that about 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold for the first time last year, maintaining their positions even during corrections, creating strong stabilizing support. Gold ETFs recorded massive inflows that raised their assets under management to $472 billion, with holdings rising to 3838 tons — very close to the historical peak of 3929 tons.

Investment demand exceeds expectations

During the first half of 2025, total demand for gold (investment and trading) reached 1249 tons, a 3% annual increase, but the value jumped 45% to reach $132 billion. North America was the main driver with 345.7 tons, followed by Europe and Asia. This geographic distribution reflects a genuine global expansion in interest in the precious metal.

Central banks: the unstoppable primary buyers

The most notable movement was from central banks, which boosted their reserves by 244 tons in the first quarter alone — 24% higher than the five-year quarterly average. China alone added more than 65 tons for the twenty-second consecutive month, while Turkey increased its reserves above 600 tons. It is expected that these purchases will continue to be a major demand driver in 2026, especially from emerging markets seeking to diversify their reserves away from the dollar.

The downside: limited supply

Mines cannot keep up with demand

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, a slight increase of only 1%, while recycled gold decreased by 1% due to owners expecting further rises. This scarcity deepens the gap between supply and demand and opens the door to additional upward pressures.

Production costs restrict expansion

The average global extraction cost has risen to $1470 per ounce — the highest in a decade — limiting producers’ ability to increase supply quickly despite high prices.

Major economic factors that will determine the price in 2026

US interest rate policy: from tightening to easing

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% in October, and market expectations point to a further 25 basis point cut in December 2025. Analysts at BlackRock expect the rate to reach 3.4% by the end of 2026. This systematic decline in rates reduces real yields and increases gold’s attractiveness as a non-yielding asset.

The dollar continues to decline

The dollar index has fallen 7.64% from its peak in early 2025, boosting gold’s appeal to foreign investors. US 10-year bond yields declined from 4.6% to 4.07%, supporting bullish outlooks.

Sovereign debt and inflation concerns

Global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, prompting investors to seek safe havens that protect against loss of purchasing power. Weakening dollar combined with ongoing inflation fears has made gold the primary hedge.

Geopolitical tensions persist

Trade conflicts between the US and China, along with Middle East tensions, increased demand for gold by 7% annually, according to Reuters. Any new shock in 2026 could push prices to new record levels.

Major banks agree: $5000 is not a dream

Major financial institutions’ forecasts

HSBC expects gold to reach $5000 in the first half of 2026 with an annual average of $4600. Bank of America also raised its target to $5000 with an average of $4400 but warned of a short-term correction due to profit-taking.

Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to $4900 based on stronger inflows into gold funds. J.P. Morgan expects the price to reach $5055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts extends between $4800 and $5000 as a potential peak, with an annual average between $4200 and $4800.

Are there risks threatening this bullish scenario?

Expert warnings do not diminish optimism

HSBC warned of a possible correction toward $4200 in the second half of 2026 but ruled out a drop below $3800 unless a severe economic shock occurs. Goldman Sachs pointed out that prices remaining above $4800 could test the market’s “price credibility”.

Nevertheless, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank analysts agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward thanks to strategic shifts among investors.

What does technical analysis say?

As of the close on November 21, 2025, gold traded at $4065, down from the $4381 high on October 20. The price broke the upward channel but still holds the main upward trendline.

The critical support level at $4000 — a key point determining whether the correction continues or not. Below it, the price could target $3800 (Fibonacci level 50%). On the upside, $4200 is the first strong resistance, followed by $4400 and $4680.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stabilized at 50 — a neutral zone reflecting a balance between buying and selling. The MACD remains above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend. The outlook: a sideways upward trading range between $4000 and $4220 in the near term, with a positive outlook as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Expected gold prices locally in the Middle East

If prices approach $5000 per ounce in 2026, these levels could translate into local markets as:

• In Egypt: approximately 522,580 EGP per ounce (up 158%)
• In Saudi Arabia: around 18,750 to 19,000 SAR
• In the UAE: around 18,375 to 19,000 AED

These estimates assume exchange rates remain stable (as currently achieved in Saudi Arabia and the UAE) and that global demand continues without economic shocks.

Conclusion: Gold heading toward historic levels in 2026

Gold price forecasts point to a new era of potential highs driven by declining US interest rates, a weak dollar, increased central bank purchases, and limited supply. While prices may experience limited corrections, the overall trend remains bullish.

If real yields continue to fall and the dollar remains weak, then the $5000 barrier is no longer a distant dream. However, if market confidence is restored and inflation drops sharply, gold could settle within a narrower range. In either case, gold price forecasts for 2026 warrant close monitoring for any balanced investment portfolio.