Is gold approaching a new high? Gold analyst forecasts for 2026

When discussing the future prices of precious metals, the bullish momentum that gold experienced throughout 2025 cannot be ignored. This metal has been the central point in cautious investors’ portfolios, surpassing the $4,300 per ounce mark in mid-October 2025 before declining to levels around $4,000 in the subsequent period.

This volatile price movement has sparked widespread discussions among analysts: Will 2026 witness a historic jump toward $5,000? Or will downward corrections limit the bullish ambitions?

Drivers of Gold Demand: A Comprehensive View

The increasing interest in gold comes within the broader context of investors seeking safe havens amid a turbulent economic environment. Data from the World Gold Council showed that total demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons, up 3% year-over-year, with a total value exceeding $132 billion, an increase of 45%.

A crucial role in this rise was played by a new group of individual investors who added gold to their portfolios for the first time. According to Bloomberg data, about 28% of new investors in developed markets took this step last year, driven by expectations of continued gold price increases.

In terms of exchange-traded gold funds, massive cash inflows were recorded, with assets under management reaching $472 billion, and holdings totaling 3,838 tons, up 6% from the previous period. This figure approaches the historical peak estimated at around 3,929 tons.

Central Banks: The Silent Force Behind the Rises

Institutional purchases from investment funds alone did not drive the rally. Central banks added 244 tons of gold during Q1 2025, representing a 24% increase over the five-year average.

The numbers speak clearly: 44% of central banks worldwide now manage gold reserves, compared to only 37% in 2024. This shift reflects a strategic move toward diversification away from the US dollar.

China, Turkey, and India led the list of buyers, with the People’s Bank of China alone adding more than 65 tons in the first half of the year, continuing a 22-month consecutive expansion. Projections indicate that this demand will remain a key factor supporting prices through the end of 2026.

Supply Side: Relative Scarcity Supporting Prices

While demand is rising strongly, supply is moving slowly. Mine production in Q1 2025 hit a record 856 tons, but with a slight increase of less than 1% year-over-year.

What deepens the gap further is the decline in recycled gold by about 1% during the same period. The clear reason: owners prefer to hold onto their assets amid expectations of continued price increases rather than sell.

Additionally, global extraction costs rose to approximately $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest level in a decade. This pressure on profit margins limits production expansion, meaning the relative scarcity persists.

Monetary Policy: The Main Arena of Influence

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025, bringing the range to 3.75-4.00%. This cut was not isolated; markets are pricing in an additional 25 basis point cut in December 2025.

According to BlackRock reports, the Fed may target an interest rate of 3.4% by the end of 2026 in the moderate scenario. These successive cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, increasing its appeal as a hedge.

But the Fed is not alone. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are following the same easing path, creating a global environment that supports demand for precious metals.

The Dollar and Yields: The Mirror Image of Gold

The US dollar index declined by about 7.64% from its peak in early 2025 until the close on November 21, 2025. Meanwhile, US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% in Q1 to around 4.07% in mid-November.

This dual decline in the dollar and real yields created an ideal environment for gold to rise. Investors are seeking to rebalance their portfolios away from dollar assets, boosting demand for metals.

Bank of America analysts see that continuing this trend could put gold on a sustainable upward path, especially with real yields stabilizing near 1.2%.

Sovereign Debt and Inflation: Long-term Concerns

Global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, according to the IMF. This figure has raised genuine concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies.

As these concerns escalate, investors turn to gold as protection against loss of purchasing power. Bloomberg Economics data shows that about 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025.

Although the World Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in 2026, rising government debts remain a long-term supportive factor for gold.

Geopolitical Tensions: Fueling Demand

Trade tensions between the US and China, along with Middle East concerns, have pushed investors to increase their exposure to gold. According to Reuters, geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 raised demand by 7% year-over-year.

As fears around Taiwan and energy supplies intensified, spot prices surged past $3,400 per ounce in July 2025. With ongoing uncertainty, gold continued its ascent, surpassing $4,300 in October.

This historical behavior indicates that any new shock in 2026 could push prices to new record levels.

What Do Major Analysts Expect for 2026?

HSBC expects prices to surge to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an average forecast of $4,600 for the entire year.

Bank of America also raised its forecast to $5,000 as a potential peak, with an expected average of $4,400, but warned of a possible short-term correction if investors start taking profits.

Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to $4,900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into gold funds and continued central bank purchases.

J.P. Morgan predicted gold prices reaching around $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts is between $4,800 and $5,000 as a potential peak, with an average between $4,200 and $4,800.

What About the Middle East?

The region has seen a notable increase in gold reserves held by central banks. The Central Bank of Egypt added 1 ton in Q1 2025, while Qatar’s central bank added 3 tons.

According to CoinCodex forecasts, gold prices in Egypt could reach around 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce, an increase of 158.46% over current prices.

In Saudi Arabia and the UAE, based on the global forecast of $5,000 per ounce, prices could reach approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR and 18,375 to 19,000 AED respectively.

Is There a Risk of a Downward Correction?

Despite optimism, HSBC warned that the upward momentum might weaken in the second half of 2026, with potential corrections toward $4,200 if investors start profit-taking. However, a drop below $3,800 is unlikely unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that sustained prices above $4,800 could test the market’s “price credibility,” especially with weak industrial demand.

But J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank analysts agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to a strategic shift in investor perception of it as a long-term asset.

Technical Analysis: What Do Charts Say?

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4,065.01 per ounce, after touching a historic high of $4,381.44 on October 20, 2025.

The price broke the ascending channel line on the daily timeframe but remains attached to the main upward trendline connecting higher lows around $4,050.

Strong support appears at the $4,000 level, making this zone critical. A clear daily close below it could target $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement) before resuming the upward move.

On the other hand, $4,200 is the first strong resistance level, with a break above opening the way toward $4,400, then $4,680.

The RSI remains at 50, indicating a neutral market. Meanwhile, the MACD signal line stays above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

The technical outlook suggests gold will continue trading within a mildly upward-sloping range between $4,000 and $4,220 in the near term, with the overall picture remaining positive as long as the price stays above the main trendline.

Summary: Are We Really Heading into a Golden Year?

As the cycle of monetary euphoric expansion nears its end and the global economy enters a slowdown phase, a struggle between profit-taking and new buying waves from central banks and institutional investors may unfold.

If real yields continue to decline and the dollar remains weak, gold is poised to reach new historic highs. Conversely, if inflation eases and confidence returns to financial markets, the metal could enter a long-term stabilization phase.

Overall forecasts lean more toward the first scenario, as most supporting factors align with continued upward movement throughout 2026, making today’s analyst predictions point to a promising year for the yellow metal.