Will gold rise in 2025-2026? Analysts' forecasts and factors influencing prices

Strong Performance of Gold: From Numbers to Reality

In an exceptional year, gold achieved what most major investment banks did not expect. The year started with a relatively modest price, but geopolitical developments and unexpected economic shifts pushed it upward continuously. It reached a historic high of $4,381 per ounce in mid-October, marking an increase of over 50% since the beginning of the year, a remarkable achievement reflecting global investor confidence in it as a safe haven.

The Upward Path: How Did Gold Reach These Levels?

Gold price development throughout the year was not random but resulted from a complex interaction of multiple factors:

Q1 and Q2: The price experienced gradual increases from $2,251 to $2,450, driven by expectations of US interest rate cuts and strong buying waves from exchange-traded funds and Asian central banks, especially in China and India.

Q3: The precious metal continued its ascent to touch $2,672, benefiting from central banks’ decisions to cut interest rates and large acquisitions in the mining sector.

Q4: Accelerated notably, jumping to $2,785 in October, then fluctuating before stabilizing above $2,660 by year-end.

Will Gold Really Rise in 2025-2026? Major Financial Institutions’ Insights

Experts’ forecasts indicate continued growth, but at a more cautious pace:

• J.P. Morgan: expects an average of $5,000 by 2026, and $4,900 in the last quarter of the year
• Goldman Sachs: sees a possibility of reaching $4,900 by the end of 2026 in an optimistic scenario
• Morgan Stanley: estimates the price will reach $4,500 by mid-2026
• Standard Chartered: forecasts $4,300 by the end of 2025 and $4,500 over 12 months
• Bank of America: predicts $4,000 by Q3 2026
• HSBC and ANZ: forecasts range between $4,400-$5,000 depending on the timeframe

Fundamental Factors Behind Gold’s Rise

Inflation and Purchasing Power

Inflation remains the primary driver. The inflation rate was around 3% annually in September, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This gap makes gold a key tool for preserving real wealth value.

Weak US Dollar

The relationship is inverse and clear: the weaker the dollar, the higher gold. Expansionary fiscal policies and domestic inflation have caused the US dollar to lose strength, supporting the attractiveness of the precious metal.

Central Bank Decisions

Purchases by central banks, especially from emerging markets, continued strongly. Central banks hold about 20% of the global gold stock, and their decisions directly influence demand and prices.

Safe Haven Demand

Geopolitical conflicts and economic tensions have driven investors to seek safe assets. Gold, by nature, performs this role very efficiently.

Exchange-Traded Funds

Strong inflows into gold ETFs (like SPDR Gold Shares) reflected increasing confidence and added positive buying pressure to the market.

Investment Areas: How to Invest in Gold?

Short-term Investment

Relies on exploiting daily and weekly fluctuations through contracts for difference (CFDs) or futures contracts. This approach offers high flexibility and quick profit opportunities but carries higher risks and requires daily monitoring and continuous technical analysis.

Practical Example: If you open a margin trade with $1,000 and leverage of 1:100 at a price of $3,700, a price increase to $3,710 yields a profit of $1,000.

Long-term Investment

Focuses on buying gold bars or coins or investing in gold-backed funds. This approach is safer and preserves value against inflation but involves storage and insurance costs and does not generate immediate income.

Practical Tips for New Investors

1. Start by understanding the basics: Learn about the factors influencing prices before any practical step.

2. Set clear goals: Do you want protection from inflation, portfolio diversification, or quick gains?

3. Assess your risk tolerance: Gold may experience short-term volatility despite being a safe haven in the long run.

4. Manage your portfolio wisely: Continuously monitor developments and use available tracking tools.

5. Rely on discipline: Don’t let emotions drive your investment decisions.

Potential Risks That Could Halt the Rise

Despite positive prospects, certain factors could impede the upward trend:

• Federal Reserve resuming interest rate hikes: Will weaken gold, which does not yield interest
• Reduction in geopolitical tensions: May decrease demand for safe havens
• Capital shifts: Sudden outflows from gold to other assets

Summary: Is Investing in Gold Worth It Now?

Yes, but only if: You have a clear vision of your goals and the investment horizon. Data indicates that gold will continue to rise during 2025-2026, especially amid ongoing global economic and political uncertainties.

Options are diverse: gold bars and coins for long-term protection, or CFDs for those seeking quick returns. The key is choosing what suits your financial situation and risk appetite.

Ultimately, gold has been a reliable tool for wealth preservation over centuries, and all indicators suggest this role will continue in the coming years.