Gold breaks into new markets: Running at $4,000, will it continue or stop?

The Gold Breakthrough: Gold “Pierces” Through the $4,000 Barrier

This extraordinary gold price surge occurred in October 2025, when the market saw a new record – from the start of the year at just $3,000 per ounce, prices skyrocketed by approximately 66% in just 7 months. As observed, on October 20, 2025, gold recently hit a psychological peak at $4,181 per ounce. Comparing this to previous movements, it took 14 months to rise from $2,000 to $3,000. Imagine doubling that speed!

For Thailand, the figures also align. Gold bars 96.5% purity surged past the target of 62,000 Baht per baht, prompting experts who had set a target of 55,000 Baht to revise their forecasts upward.

Why is gold “talking big” and rising like this?

1. The Zero-Tax War Echoes Loudly

The escalating trade tensions between the US and China intensified. President Trump announced a 100% import tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025, creating global market jitters. Investors sought “safe havens,” and gold became the primary choice.

2. Central Banks Become “Gold Traders”

This is the strongest structural factor. Central banks in emerging markets purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years (2023-2025), continuing the trend in 2025. This movement stems from the push to “diversify away from a single basket,” i.e., reducing dependence on the US dollar, especially after the Russian central bank’s asset freezes in 2022.

3. Falling Interest Rates = Gold Bounces

As the US Federal Reserve (Fed) begins to cut interest rates, the dollar weakens. This makes gold, traded in dollars, cheaper for international buyers. Meanwhile, low interest rates reduce the “opportunity cost” of holding gold, further boosting its appeal.

4. BRICS Push Forward with Digital Currency

Rumors suggest BRICS may issue a digital currency backed by gold, directly challenging the dollar.

Major Central Players: Gold Could Reach $4,900

Goldman Sachs, Wall Street’s advisor, has raised its target to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 (up from the previous $4,300). According to their analysis by Lina Thomas, the rise is driven by genuine demand from “large institutions” and substantial inflows into gold ETFs.

Swiss bank UBS also remains optimistic, expecting gold to hit $3,500 due to increased central bank purchases worldwide.

Back in Thailand, if we convert the $4,900 target into Baht, gold could reach 75,000-80,000 Baht per baht within 2026.

Will it drop again? Watch out for four risk points

Although gold seems to be rising, there are potential risks that could cause a correction:

1. Successful Peace Negotiations – If the US and China sit down and reach an agreement, gold prices might sharply decline.

2. Gold Sell-Off by Holders – After an 8-week rally, investors might start taking profits, leading to a price drop.

3. US Dollar Strengthening – If the US economy remains strong, the dollar could appreciate, making gold more expensive and reducing demand.

4. Inflation Not Easing – If inflation persists, the Fed may keep interest rates high, keeping gold prices elevated.

Technical signals: What do charts tell us?

Rapid Price Surge – The quick jump of $250 in a few days indicates strong buying momentum, a positive sign for the trend.

RSI Overbought – The RSI indicator for gold is in the overbought zone, suggesting a potential correction. However, continued buying could sustain the uptrend.

Market in Mid-Phase – According to theory, markets have three phases: accumulation, public entry, and distribution. Gold appears to be in the “public entry” phase, with room for further gains.

Three Gold Trading Tips

First: Wait for the “Buy The Dip” opportunity

Gold is in a strong uptrend but rising rapidly, so wait for a correction:

• Wait for the price to drop to $3,859 (at the start of the month) or $3,782
• Enter when signs of reversal appear, with a stop-loss at $3,750
• Profit target: $4,084

Second: Test the previous breakout “Breakout Retest”

Gold just broke $4,000, so it may revisit the previous resistance:

• Wait for a retest at $3,980–$4,000
• Confirm that this level is support (with a bounce and high trading volume)
• Enter buy, set stop-loss at $3,950
• Target: $4,100

Third: Fibonacci Retracement

Draw Fibonacci from the low (3,500) to the high (4,059):

• Look for buy signals at 38.2% or 61.8%
• Enter when price approaches these levels with reversal signals
• Set stop-loss below the next Fibonacci level

Summary: Will gold fall again? It depends

In 2025-2026, gold remains “in a love affair that has gone away.” The world views gold as a safe-haven asset. Goldman Sachs and other experts forecast prices reaching $4,900 per ounce, or in Thailand, 75,000–80,000 Baht per baht.

The question “Will gold fall again?” depends on multiple factors – US-China relations, Fed decisions, and inflation. Honestly, volatility is normal. Prices may dip once or twice, but the overall trend remains upward. If you’re considering entering, wait for a slight correction, then buy. Don’t rush, and remember: Gold is not legal tender but a “security of safety” for the world’s people.