#美联储政策 Seeing this wave of predictions, I have to calmly say a few heartfelt words.

Cathie Wood says inflation could drop to 0% by 2026, and UBS forecasts continued gains in the US stock market. Sounds great, right? But after years of navigating this market, I’ve learned one crucial lesson: the more optimistic the forecast, the more you should question it.

Where’s the problem? All these predictions are based on a bunch of "ifs"—if oil prices keep falling, if rents decline, if policy directions become clear, if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates. If any one of these variables goes wrong, the entire logical chain breaks down. And these variables are not stable—they’re influenced by geopolitical issues, policy changes, full of uncertainties.

I’ve seen too many people go all-in because they believe in optimistic forecasts from big institutions, only to get their faces slapped. Institutions say the US stock market could reach 7700 points—very tempting—but they don’t consider whether your capital can withstand the fluctuations along the way. A 10% rise in the S&P 500 sounds steady, but a drop can happen just as quickly.

Real risk management isn’t about blindly following big institutions’ narratives; it’s about asking yourself three questions: First, how bad could the worst-case scenario be? Second, can my funds withstand this worst case? Third, do I truly understand the logic behind this or am I just driven by emotions?

Maintaining your allocation is fine, but only if you have a clear risk awareness and know what to do if these predictions fall short. That’s how you can survive longer on-chain.