Gold in 2025-2026: Can it continue? Analyzing entry points and important warning signs

Last month, the gold price decided to break through the $4,000 per ounce wall and there are no signs of stopping. The market is full of confidence. But the question everyone wants to know is when will gold prices drop and right now, is it a good time to buy?

Latest Data: Gold Soaring Like Never Before

In late October this year, gold prices hit a new record of $4,181 per ounce, shocking investors worldwide. Since the beginning of 2025, gold has increased by at least 66%, taking just half a year to rise from $3,000 to over $4,000.

In Thailand, the situation is no different. 96.5% gold bars have already surpassed 62,000 THB, prompting experts to revise their targets from the original 55,000 THB up to 75,000-80,000 THB per baht of gold in 2026.

For those who believe Wall Street gurus: Still a Long Way Off

Goldman Sachs sets a target of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, higher than their previous target of $4,300. The main reasons are relentless demand from central banks and inflows into ETFs.

UBS agrees, expecting the $3,500 level to be strongly tested, as central banks worldwide have bought over 1,200 tons of gold annually for three consecutive years.

These financial institutions see what’s happening now as just the beginning of a bigger trend.

4 Reasons Why Gold Keeps Rising

1. Trade War: Red Flag

The US plans to impose a 100% import tariff from China starting in November. This tension discourages investors from normal markets and pushes them to rely on gold as a final fortress.

2. Central Banks Accelerate Gold Purchases

Emerging market countries are diversifying risk away from the US dollar. The Russian asset freeze two years ago made them aware of risks. Global gold reserves have reached a high of approximately 36,699 tons.

3. US Dollar Weakening

The Fed has started to cut interest rates. The dollar weakens, making gold more attractive, especially for holders of other currencies.

4. BRICS Challenges the Dollar Universe

Rumors suggest BRICS is preparing a digital currency backed by gold. This is a move away from the dollar’s dominance.

Beware! When Will Gold Prices Drop

Although the situation looks bright, there is a “mask” that could change the game:

Scenario 1: US-China Negotiations Succeed Positive signals from resolving tariffs could trigger a sharp reversal in gold prices.

Scenario 2: Profit-Taking Accumulation Prices have risen for 8 consecutive weeks without pause. Investors start to lock in profits. RSI is overbought, and the psychological resistance at $4,000 has been tested.

Scenario 3: US Dollar Rebounds If the US economy is stronger than expected, the Fed may delay rate cuts. The dollar will strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold.

Scenario 4: Interest Rates Remain High Inflation resists the Fed, requiring high interest rates for a long time. Gold ( that does not pay interest ) will become boring.

If asked, when will gold prices fall? the answer is that it may first drop to the range of $3,900-$3,950 or support at $3,800-$3,850. If fundamental factors reverse, the real key is to watch the Fed and trade negotiations.

Technical Signals to Watch

Price Surge (Price Surge) Gold soared $250 in a few days, indicating strong buying momentum.

RSI Overbought This signals a watch zone. When investors start taking profits, prices may pause or correct.

Shooting Star Pattern Seen on the chart, indicating a short-term slowdown or reversal.

Buying Strategies for Gold Enthusiasts

1. Buy on Dips (Buy the Dip)

Wait for the price to drop to $3,859 (October opening support) or $3,782, then buy. Set stop-loss at $3,750, with a target of $4,100.

2. Confirm Breakout and Retest (Breakout Retest)

Wait for the price to test the $3,980-$4,000 range. If it bounces up, buy. Set stop-loss at $3,950, with a target of $4,150.

3. Use Fibonacci Levels

Draw from $3,500 to $4,059, looking for buy points at 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels.

Closing: Gold in the Near Future Will Continue to Correct but Be Cautious

Gold prices in 2025-2026 are expected to follow Wall Street gurus’ target of $4,900, equivalent to 75,000-80,000 THB in Thailand.

However, that target is not straightforward. Along the way, there are many “obstacles,” including trade negotiations, interest rate issues, or profit-taking.

When will gold prices fall? The answer is that it will definitely fall, but how much depends on when positive or negative factors become decisive. So, it’s okay to buy gold now, but keep your mind ready for short-term dips. The main trend remains bullish. The key is to DART the (Dip) — enter on dips — and not expect 100% profit in a short time.