Will gold prices go down further? In-depth analysis from the global market and guidance towards $4,000

If you have just purchased gold and are worried Will gold prices go down again? This article will give a clear answer. After gold surged past the psychological level of $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history, many investors are asking the same question: Is this the peak, or is there more to come?

Gold has risen 66% in just 7 months: A surprisingly strong performance

Since the beginning of 2025, gold prices have increased by over 66% from an initial value of $2,500. The jump from $3,000 to $4,000 occurred in just 7 months. As of October 20, 2025, gold prices hit a new record at $4,181 per ounce.

The speed of this adjustment indicates one thing: the market believes there are real reasons for gold to be more expensive.

In Thailand, 96.5% pure gold bars have also surged to over 62,000 baht per baht, prompting experts who previously predicted 55,000 baht to quickly revise their outlook.

Four reasons why gold isn’t likely to fall easily

1. The trade war is expanding, not decreasing

One of the main reasons for gold’s rise is the increasing tension among global superpowers. When investors see signs of uncertainty, they often turn to gold as a safe haven.

Currently, signals suggest that this trade competition may continue until new principles are discussed, which keeps investors relying on gold.

2. Central banks worldwide are increasing gold reserves

This is the most significant structural factor. Over the past 3 years, central banks from emerging markets have been purchasing gold continuously, especially more than 1,000 tons per year.

They are doing this to reduce dependence on the US dollar. After the freezing of Russian central bank assets in 2022, the global gold reserves reached the highest levels in decades, over 36,699 tons.

Furthermore, additional demand remains from other central banks preparing to do the same.

3. Central monetary policies remain accommodative

The US Federal Reserve ((Fed)) has begun to cut interest rates, with a 0.25% reduction in September 2025, and further cuts are expected in October and December.

When interest rates fall, the value of the dollar usually weakens. When the dollar weakens, gold (priced in dollar terms) becomes more attractive to holders of other currencies.

This movement is likely to continue.

4. BRICS is preparing to restructure the monetary system

Data indicates that the BRICS group is preparing to introduce a new international payment system backed primarily by gold assets. This idea challenges the dominance of the US dollar, meaning gold could become more important than paper money.

In such a scenario, there is no good reason for gold prices to decline.

When might gold prices decrease?

Although various factors point to continued upward movement, investors should be aware of four potential scenarios that could reverse the trend:

First: The US and China successfully negotiate tariffs. If news emerges that trade tensions are easing, gold could turn downward.

Second: Profit-taking after a sustained rally. Investors might start to sell to lock in gains or due to fear.

Third: The US dollar recovers. If the US economy performs better than expected and the Fed decides to pause rate cuts, the dollar could strengthen again, putting downward pressure on gold prices.

Fourth: Inflation may not decrease as hoped. If the economy remains hot, the Fed might keep interest rates high, making gold (which does not pay interest) less attractive.

How do global experts forecast: Target $4,900

Despite risks, the market still shows confidence in gold.

Goldman Sachs has revised its target price upward from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, citing strong demand from central banks and continued capital flows into gold ETFs.

Goldman Sachs analyst Lina Thomas said that by the end of 2025, gold could reach $3,300, based on one reason: demand is stronger than anyone expected.

UBS from Switzerland initially predicted $3,500, but now maintains a positive outlook, stating that central bank gold accumulation is unprecedented in scale.

For Thailand, if we convert Goldman Sachs’ target into Thai gold prices, 96.5% pure gold bars could reach 75,000 to 80,000 baht within 2026.

Current gold trading strategies

If you’re looking for ways to invest in gold now, here are three practical strategies:

Method 1: Buy on Dip (Buy on Dip)

Since prices are rising rapidly, short-term corrections are possible. This strategy involves waiting for a pullback to key support levels, around $3,859 or a secondary level at $3,782.

When you see no breakout below support, buy and set a stop-loss below support, with a profit target at new highs.

Method 2: Breakout Retest (Breakout Retest)

When gold price just breaks through a resistance level, it often retests that level to prevent selling and establish a new support.

Wait until the price retraces to around $3,980–$4,000, and upon confirmation of a rebound, buy.

Method 3: Use Fibonacci retracement to find support levels

Draw Fibonacci from the starting point (say, $3,500) to the high ($4,059). When the price retraces to 38.2% or 61.8% of this range, it’s another entry point.

Technical signals: How to read them correctly

Analyzing price charts (charts) can also help:

Rapid upward movement indicates strong buying pressure. If the price rises $250 in just a few days, it’s a positive sign.

RSI in overbought zone suggests a short-term correction might occur. But if buying momentum remains and RSI stays high, the trend is still strong.

Candlestick patterns like Shooting Star may warn of a reversal, but in a strong uptrend, they could just be temporary pauses.

Final words: Gold can go further, but beware of volatility

Answering the question Will gold prices go down again? — it’s possible there will be short-term dips, but the long-term trend remains upward.

If key factors like (trade tensions, rate cuts, and central bank gold purchases) continue, gold could reach $4,900 or higher.

Despite risks, investors buying gold now are not too late if they choose the right timing.

The key: stay calm, wait for minor pullbacks, then enter. It’s better than buying impulsively and getting caught in profit-taking swings.